Opinion

Newton Emerson: Averting a snap Dail election gives Sinn Féin time to strike a Stormont deal

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar expressed anger over the lack of progress in the north
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar expressed anger over the lack of progress in the north Taoiseach Leo Varadkar expressed anger over the lack of progress in the north

The political crisis in Dublin has been seen as toxic to an early restoration of Stormont. In truth, it could have played out for Northern Ireland either way.

The real poison was administered last week, when Taoiseach Leo Varadkar told the Dail he will demand a summit of the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) in the New Year if a Stormont deal has not been reached.

For good measure, he added that direct rule is not an option and in the absence of devolution, “everything is devolved to the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference.”

This was a bizarre misreading of the Good Friday Agreement. However, it is exactly when Sinn Féin asked for two weeks previously, while the ‘everything is devolved’ line sounded like a form of joint authority, which Sinn Féin portrayed as an ideal fallback position after pulling down Stormont in January.

Better still for republican divide-and-conquer purposes, Varadkar made his call in anger. He framed it as a demand from Dublin to London, rather than as a joint decision - and he told the Dail he had issued it in person to Prime Minister Theresa May at an EU summit the week before, where he promised to veto Brexit trade talks without guarantees against a hard border.

Brexit is rumbling away behind all this, creating an early December deadline when trade talks must commence and before which a Stormont deal would be premature.

Sinn Féin now has every incentive to wait until a BIICG summit, while building an expectation that both governments should enforce republican demands over the DUP’s head.

Announcing this Monday that further DUP-Sinn Féin negotiations are pointless, northern leader Michelle O’Neill said “the onus” (does anyone other than Sinn Féin use that term?) is on London and Dublin to chart a way forward.

The taoiseach’s Dail statement has gone strangely under-reported. Perhaps others think he was bluffing, yet that would be further grist to Sinn Féin’s mill. If no conference materialises in the New Year, republicans can portray the British government as intransigent and the Irish government as weak. Sinn Féin might even be in the Irish government by then, which brings us back to the crisis in Dublin.

Had Varadkar’s government fallen this week and triggered a Christmas election, there would have been no time to restore Stormont and Sinn Féin would have had to make a virtue out of necessity, campaigning for the Dail on the basis of standing firm against unionism.

Instead, the Irish government has hobbled on but will almost certainly have to hold an election early next year.

That was Sinn Féin’s preferred outcome. Despite triggering the crisis with a motion of no confidence, it only wanted to drive a wedge between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. This Tuesday morning, as matters went much closer to the wire than anyone had expected, Gerry Adams called on the tanaiste to avoid a Christmas election and resign.

Now she has done so, republicans have time and motivation to strike a quick deal with the DUP.

Although Sinn Fein’s Dail rivals try to make northern mud stick, Stormont is normally of no interest to southern voters - the welfare reform crisis proved that beyond doubt. But the theatrics of a Stormont deal, especially with an enhanced role for the British and Irish governments, would give Sinn Féin valuable prominence and well-timed plaudits as the Republic spirals towards the polls.

There is no question a quick deal is available from the DUP. At her party’s conference last weekend, Arlene Foster frantically signalled that Irish language legislation is on offer. More tellingly, she took a fresh risk with her base by disowning British government proposals for a security force amnesty. The DUP is desperate to get Stormont back.

At this point in any discussion on restoring devolution, Sinn Féin supporters tend to proclaim they do not want Stormont back, pulling it down is the most popular policy the party has ever had, there will be no return to 800 years of curried yoghurt and so forth.

Such people should spend less time listening to their inner rage and more time listening to Gerry Adams. Having digested the implications of June’s UK general election, the Sinn Féin president clearly signalled at the end of the summer that a Stormont deal will be done. A handful of hawks in his kitchen cabinet remain unpersuaded but they will all move forward together once the time is right.

The problem is that in eventful times, that moment keeps slipping over the horizon.

newton@irishnews.com