As the British government wobbles, a parochial question arises: what does cabinet chaos mean for a Stormont deal?
Conventional wisdom holds that Sinn Féin is stalling to see if events play into its hands, so an eventful Westminster should stall it even more. However, some reports from last week’s talks claimed Sinn Féin is ready to deal but the DUP is holding out for guarantees of a more stable executive. So an unstable Westminster should hasten the DUP back to Stormont - the only power base it will have if its pact with the Tories unravels. Whatever crisis afflicts the cabinet, the Conservatives will hang onto power until the bitter end, so perhaps numbers are the best guide to what might happen next.
The government needs to lose the support of six MPs for the DUP to be unable to save it - or just three, if Sinn Féin takes its seats.
An intriguing, albeit remote, possibility arises: could republicans enter Westminster before they re-enter Stormont?
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With comically bad timing, RHI is back. The inquiry into the ‘botched energy scheme’ (its official media title) has begun 11 months after Sinn Fein’s Máirtín Ó Muilleoir, who initiated it, said he hoped it would take six months to finish. During those 11 months, inquiry chair and retired judge Sir Patrick Coghlin has amassed one million pages of evidence - equivalent to a stack of paper the height of the Obel Tower. It is now patently clear this process will take the rest of the decade, although all it can add to last year’s Audit Office report into RHI is a lot of he-said she-said squabbling en route to the same broad conclusions. What it will achieve is to cast a shadow over DUP leader Arlene Foster if and when she returns to the post of first minister, weakening her to the point where she will envy Theresa May.
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Gordon Brown, until recently the UK’s worst-ever prime minister, has published a self-exculpating memoir in which he criticises David Cameron for UCUNF - the 2010 electoral pact with the UUP.
Drawing parallels with the current DUP-Tory deal, Brown believes Cameron lit a “fuse” that destroyed British government neutrality and ultimately brought down power-sharing. Sadly, Brown did not draw parallels with his 2010 attempt to arrange a Westminster pact with the DUP on exactly the same terms as May.
No doubt he would have described any £1 billion spending package as “investment”.
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Among the matters illustrated by the Paradise Papers investigation into tax avoidance is the democratic deficit due to Stormont’s absence. Antrim firm Springfarm Architectural Mouldings declared it had given away its £4 million headquarters to an unconnected third party in Mauritius, then started renting it back at £250,000 a year. The Paradise Papers reveal the firm’s owner and his wife effectively control this third party.
When confronted about this, Invest NI - a long-time subsidiser and shareholder in the firm - blithely announced it knew about the building but considers tax to be HMRC’s responsibility.
Invest NI could not get away with such contempt for public concern if a minister was being held accountable. Clearly, it has slipped into direct rule mode already.
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Paul McGarry, chair of the Bar Council of Ireland, has told a legal conference in London that Brexit is “incompatible” with the Good Friday Agreement. At the same event, the chair of the Bar in Northern Ireland, said Brexit “undermines” the agreement. Politically, the latter point is undeniable. Legally, “incompatible” is a strong word - it implies a judicial review would find Brexit breaches the agreement. Yet Belfast High Court and the UK Supreme Court have both found otherwise. Mr McGarry raised specific concerns about free movement of people and EU citizenship for northern nationalists but neither is mentioned in the agreement, nor is Brexit expected to affect them.
All we have proof of so far is that a good barrister can make a case for anything.
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A Category One sex offender with 68 previous convictions told his probation officer he has “a long-term interest in children and there may not be any treatment which will change this,” Belfast Crown Court has heard.
No treatment may be available in Northern Ireland but many countries offer progesterone injections to sex offenders in return for reduced sentences - and three European countries make them mandatory.
Often mistakenly referred to as ‘chemical castration’, the treatment is fully reversible, highly effective and increasingly used around the world. Most of its proponents consider it a humane alternative to lifelong custody, rather than a punishment in itself. So why is not used here?
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Belgium’s fragile ruling coalition has split in a row over Spain’s approach to Catalonia, with Flemish nationalists citing a 16th century Spanish massacre in Antwerp, when Catholic troops attacked the mainly Protestant population. Belgium’s French-speaking foreign minister has led cabinet criticism of Flemish colleagues. It is yet another example of the most important lesson we can learn from Europe: Northern Ireland is normal - it is England that is weird.
newton@irishnews.com
