Opinion

Sinn Féin could be power-brokers if electoral dice fall its way

Whoever goes looking for Sinn Féin support in forming a government will have to come to terms with the prospect of the Bearded One at the cabinet-table
Whoever goes looking for Sinn Féin support in forming a government will have to come to terms with the prospect of the Bearded One at the cabinet-table Whoever goes looking for Sinn Féin support in forming a government will have to come to terms with the prospect of the Bearded One at the cabinet-table

It’s always a privilege to visit Croke Park, especially at this time of year.

As a boy I saw Down become the first of the "six counties" to win the Sam Maguire Cup. Since then there have been many changes at the Field of Dreams, mostly for the better.

One that bothers me, which I don’t recall from the old days, is the spectacle of substitutes running up and down the side-line, stopping only to engage in a few stretches and other contortions.

This is puzzling because, if they weren’t fit prior to the game, what are they doing in "Croker"? Secondly, wouldn’t they be better employed watching the play so that they can fit seamlessly into the contest if called upon?

A friend who comes to matches with me insists that the subs need the exercise to loosen them up on the day and that they already know what the game-plan is, without having to watch the teams.

Be that as it may, it still bugs me. On a lighter note, those side-line activities remind me of opposition politics. Jumping up and down and hoping that you’ll get onto the pitch at some stage is what you do when you are on the opposition benches.

It can be frustrating, if it goes on too long. The Labour Party in Britain, for example, hasn’t been in office since 2010 although their prospects are starting to look better lately. Nearer home in Dáil Éireann, the Fianna Fáil party was turfed out of office in 2011 and failed to get back when the electorate voted again in 2016.

One of the main reasons you go into politics is to get things done. True, in opposition you can still have some impact and Fianna Fáil does exercise a degree of influence through its "confidence-and-supply" agreement with the current Fine Gael-led government.

But sooner or later there will be another general election and, if Fianna Fáil don’t make it back into power, the party will surely be facing an existential crisis. When the dust settles and the votes have been counted, they need to be heading towards government buildings and a raft of seats at the cabinet-table. For their part, Fine Gael will be hopeful their new leader Leo Varadkar can persuade the voters to let them remain in office for another term.

Barring some dramatic change in the political climate, neither of the two main parties will get a clear majority. Politics is a numbers game and, if the electoral dice fall their way, Sinn Féin could be the power-brokers.

A fair proportion of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would view the prospect of coalition alongside the `Shinners' with downright hostility. But if the alternative is a period of up to five years running and jumping on the political side-line, that distaste might well be overcome and discreet overtures could be made about a marriage of convenience.

While it is not yet official party policy, leading members of Sinn Féin have made it clear they are open for business. Most of the speculation is focussed on a possible Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin alliance but a close observer of republican politics suggested to this column that a Fine Gael-Sinn Féin coalition should by no means be ruled out. Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has been very much to the fore in highlighting Sinn Féin's long and controversial history with the IRA and this is hardly likely to have endeared him to Gerry Adams. For his part, Martin has stated that he would not form a government with Sinn Féin.

Despite all the speculation that the retirement of Adams as party leader is looming, there are no convincing indications that this is likely to happen before the next general election. Indeed he has clearly been energised by the success of Sinn Féin in the Assembly and Westminster elections.

So it looks as if whoever goes looking for Sinn Féin support in forming a government will have to come to terms with the prospect of the Bearded One at the cabinet-table. He might even be Minister for Foreign Affairs, a position similar to that held by the late Seán MacBride when he led a minority republican party into coalition with Fine Gael and others back in 1948.

MacBride, a former IRA chief of staff, took some significant initiatives in that role and, even as a junior partner, Sinn Féin would have a strong influence on issues relating to the north.

The party would doubtless be seeking to head-up an economic and/or industrial department and maybe something like education as well as arts and the Gaeltacht. You can be fairly sure they won't get the departments of justice or defence: that would be too much for the middle class to swallow at this stage.