Opinion

Jim Gibney: We are living in a time when people seek change beyond expectations

The DUP's Nigel Dodds faces a challenge to hold on to his North Belfast seat from Sinn Féin's John Finucane
The DUP's Nigel Dodds faces a challenge to hold on to his North Belfast seat from Sinn Féin's John Finucane The DUP's Nigel Dodds faces a challenge to hold on to his North Belfast seat from Sinn Féin's John Finucane

Belfast singer song writer Brigid O'Neill’s haunting melody ‘Helium Balloon’ on her album ‘Arrival and Departures’, is a metaphor for life and for the political and social changes Ireland is currently experiencing.

Her lyrics speak to people seeking change beyond their expectations and seeing long-held dreams, personal and political, become a reality.

Listening to the song a few days ago I thought of Ireland’s Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) community as the news broke that the most senior elected post in Ireland, Taoiseach, is to be held by an openly gay man, Leo Varadkar.

The news from Dublin occurred as Mary Ellen Campbell, Belfast’s deputy mayor, and Sinn Féin’s first openly gay elected representative, ended a very successful year in office.

Two gay public figures in Ireland’s two biggest cities, holding high public office, reflects the sentiment in O’Neill’s lyrics: “There are no limits to the sky. No limits to the wide blue yonder. No limits to what I can do; when I move in wonder”.

Ireland’s LGBT community must be in ‘wonder’ as they reflect on recent changes, in particular the marriage equality referendum result in the south.

Mary Ellen Campbell’s priority in office was “visibility” for the LGBT community. After decades of isolation, being marginalised and criminalised the LGBT community is now in the mainstream of Irish life. And Belfast’s deputy mayor made a significant contribution to that end.

As the people of the north go to the polls tomorrow they may well reflect on O’Neill’s lyrics: “No limits to what I can do. When I move in wonder”.

I believe it was the collective “wonder” of the north’s electorate which produced last June’s Brexit result when 56 per cent of the population voted to remain in the EU against the direction of the DUP.

I believe it was this sense of “wonder” which chimed with Martin McGuinness’s decision to resign as Deputy First Minister, which produced the surge of support for Sinn Féin and other progressive parties which ended unionist majority rule in the assembly election in March.

I also believe that sense of wonder and “no limits to what I can do”, could again change the face of the north’s political map further, with Sinn Féin gains in South and North Belfast, Fermanagh/South Tyrone, Foyle and South Down.

These are bold ambitions and while it is difficult to call, especially in South and North Belfast, the mood on the ground indicates that nationalists and others are seriously considering their options.

In the case of South Belfast that sense of “wonder” could lead to a shift from the SDLP to Mairtín Ó Muilleoir. Such a shift would ensure that the seat currently in the SDLP’s hands would safely remain nationalist.

In North Belfast, it is a ‘toe-to-toe’ two-horse race between Nigel Dodds and John Finucane.

I thought it strange that the BBC intervened swiftly in the spat between Mairtín Ó Muilleoir and Emma Pengelly over her father Noel Little’s membership of Ulster Resistance – which Ó Muilleoir reminded her of when she was trying to score points about the past during a television debate.

In January 1988, Ulster Resistance imported arms from South Africa which ended up in the hands of the UDA/UFF.

Noel Little was publicly photographed with Peter Robinson wearing a red beret at an Ulster Resistance rally in 1986.

The context for tomorrow’s poll is that few politicians or commentators predicted the north’s Brexit and Assembly results. Some journalists spoke about a ‘hidden’ but not definable mood during the assembly election. It is still there, among other factors.

The DUP is calling for its supporters to ‘vote unionist only’, even in nationalist-held constituencies where voting tactically previously favoured the SDLP. Its concern is that such votes would be counted towards the growing numbers in support of a border poll.

But the most important factor is the continuing shift towards Sinn Féin, particularly by the nationalist middle class.

This could lead to a remarkable result: the ousting of Nigel Dodds in North Belfast and depriving the DUP of South Belfast.

Brigid O’Neill’s lyrics seem apposite: “No limits to the wide blue yonder. I can fly. Watch me fly”.