Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Sinn Féin watching from sidelines as Fine Gael choose new leader

Leo Varadkar is the bookies' favourite for the Fine Gael leadership
Leo Varadkar is the bookies' favourite for the Fine Gael leadership Leo Varadkar is the bookies' favourite for the Fine Gael leadership

A West Indian friend working in an office with a wide range of Irish people asked me once in wonderment: "Deaglán, how come everyone has a different accent?"

He was intrigued that people from so small a territory spoke the English language in such diverse ways. I tried to explain it by reference to the old clan-system as well as the Viking incursions and the Norman invasion, but he still remained puzzled.

It would have been even more challenging to be asked for an explanation of the political scene in the two parts of the island. If he had said for example: "What is the difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?" I would have been fairly stumped.

Yes, I could have gone back to the split over the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty and the subsequent civil war, which was about the oath of allegiance to the crown and not partition, as is often assumed. The many killings and executions left a bitter legacy but that has largely subsided now, thank goodness, and the two parties are essentially on the same page in terms of the peace process, as the “national question” has come to be known at this stage.

Six years ago, a Fianna Fáil-led government was replaced by a coalition where Fine Gael was the majority partner, but the same basic approach on the central issue of the economy was pursued. Both administrations basically obeyed the strictures set down by the "Troika" comprised of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund to cover the cost of rescuing the crisis-ridden financial institutions.

Fianna Fáil has a reputation for being marginally more nationalist and republican than Fine Gael, but the former has been the prime mover when it comes to highlighting controversial episodes involving the IRA, with resulting political damage to Sinn Féin.

Fine Gael is about to elect a new leader who will be nominated for the position of Taoiseach early next month, in succession to Enda Kenny. The minister for social protection, Leo Varadkar (38), looks likely to win against housing minister Simon Coveney (44). They are both very articulate, competent and committed politicians. Neither of them has displayed a consuming interest in the north although they would undoubtedly be concerned about the impact of Brexit in terms of creating a hard border, among other issues.

I have known both of them for a good many years. When I first met Varadkar he was an eager young campaigner on the Yes side in a referendum for further progress in the development of the European Union. I first got to know Coveney when I covered the European Parliament, where he was a member from 2004 to 2007. Despite a keen interest in EU issues, he eventually decided to concentrate his energies on Dáil Éireann politics.

There is a feeling in political circles that an early general election is more likely if Varadkar gets the job. The current minority government led by Fine Gael depends for its survival on a "confidence and supply" agreement with Fianna Fáil as the main party in opposition and Varadkar seems to have less tolerance than Coveney for the irritations and inconveniences of such an arrangement.

Sinn Féin is watching from the sidelines, no doubt conscious of the possibility that the Dáil could be dissolved within a short time. After the ensuing general election, the prospect of coalition government might be looming. Politics is very often a numbers game and it is possible that Sinn Féin could be needed for a parliamentary majority. That would require either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael setting aside the reservations they have expressed about Adams and his party over the years. It wouldn't be easy for them, nor should it be assumed either that Sinn Féin would automatically offer themselves as coalition partners.

The only certainty, according to highly-placed Sinn Féin sources, is that Gerry Adams will not be stepping aside to facilitate any inter-party arrangement. A coalition involving Sinn Féin will take place under his leadership or not at all. Indeed it is probable that the party could only be persuaded to join a partnership government if Adams was at the helm and making the case for coalition.

Sinn Féin looks like having a good election in the south, when the time comes, but will need significant concessions on social and economic policy as well as north-south relations as part of any possible coalition deal.

Nor does the party appear in any hurry to agree a power-sharing arrangement at Stormont. Although there have been some conciliatory gestures from the DUP such as Arlene Foster's attendance at the Martin McGuinness funeral, the indications are that Sinn Féin will require a good deal more.

How the parties perform in the Westminster election will, of course, be a major factor.

@ddebreadun