Opinion

Tom Kelly: Theresa May's main interest is keeping herself in power

Tom Kelly

Tom Kelly

Tom Kelly is an Irish News columnist with a background in politics and public relations. He is also a former member of the Policing Board.

British prime minister Theresa May with European Council president Donald Tusk outside 10 Downing Street
British prime minister Theresa May with European Council president Donald Tusk outside 10 Downing Street British prime minister Theresa May with European Council president Donald Tusk outside 10 Downing Street

Mrs May got slightly annoyed last week. Well in fact she got very annoyed having met an ordinary voter by mistake.

The voter did not agree with the prime minister. That did not make the Hyacinth Bucket of Westminster very happy.

Over the coming weeks the Tory strategists will do their best to ensure that the socially awkward prime minister meets as few ordinary voters as is possible during an election campaign.

Let's face it - she's hardly one of us but thousands of ordinary working class people are likely to rally to her banner because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. For his part, Mr Corbyn wants to talk about issues such as education and the health service. These are relevant questions because they are two sectors which are in meltdown and with the Tories in government for the past seven years there's no one else to blame.

That's why Mrs May is calling this the Brexit election. She wants to avoid talking to voters and about issues. She also - under good advice - wants to avoid a head to head debate with the Labour leader. She has everything to lose from such an encounter and with such low expectations of Mr Corbyn, he has much to gain. Mrs May wants the election stage managed and therefore her appearances will be stacked with loyal Tory supporters.

That said, Mrs May is handing the main role of challenger and opposition to the media. This could prove costly for a woman not renowned for thinking on her feet or for her warmth of character. If Michael Howard had 'something of the night' about him - then Mrs May is a cross between Morticia Addams and Lucrezia Borgia.

The media should not shy off its role as major attack dog if Mrs May thinks it’s an easier route back to Number Ten than public debates with her opposition.

The fragility of Mrs May as a leader is on full view at the moment. When details leaked about the fractious nature of her dinner with Mr Juncker, at first her office went silent, then they went into denial and finally the lady herself came out and said EU negotiators would find her a "bloody difficult woman." For "bloody difficult" read stunningly stupid.

One by one British Brexit ministers are finding that either their naiveté or their ignorance about the process they are now in is blighting their judgment. And finally the message is getting through to the prime minister that a market of over five hundred million is more important to many of Britain's would be trading partners than a separate trading deal with the UK. Even the USA is starting to revert to the Obama position that any future trade deal with the UK would be a secondary objective to securing a deal with the EU.

Soon the impact of Brexit will be felt amongst what is left of the UK manufacturing industry. The so called industrial midlands and power houses of the north which voted Leave will be crying wolf as eagerly as the British farming industry. If it wasn't for the geographical fact that we here in Northern Ireland will share their fate, it would be fine to say hell rub it up them.

The weakness of the Labour leader is Mrs May's trump card. British elections are increasingly presidential in style and whether one likes it or not, English voters seem to trust Mrs May over Mr Corbyn - even if they like the sound of his policies. A large Tory majority will condemn everyone to the suffrage of a party that represents the few, not the many.

Ironically that point will be lost on many voters. There's no reactionary vote in the UK, the Remain campaign may have been dominated by disconnected euro friendly liberals but it was the Brexit campaign which was driven by a small wealthy elite, whose self-interest always overshadows any national interest, despite wrapping themselves in a Union flag.

So Mrs May enters this election with a manifesto bereft of any promises or policies. If the triple lock on pensions disappears after the election there's no point complaining. She made no promises. The prime minister claims giving her a strong mandate in the election will strengthen her hand in negotiating with Brussels over Brexit. Nothing could be further from the truth. A strong mandate will actually make it easier for her to accept whatever deal is on the table without beholding to hardline leavers or liberal remainers.

All Mrs May wants is to stay on as PM.