Opinion

Martin O'Brien: Our politicians need to focus on the Brexit emergency

There's been debate on what the Brexit bill actually will look like
There's been debate on what the Brexit bill actually will look like There's been debate on what the Brexit bill actually will look like

This “cash for ash” election has a strange aura of unreality around it even if Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt’s risky but brave decision to give his own second preference to the SDLP has made it more interesting.

As important as the election is, the most critical issue facing us is not at the centre of the campaign.

For the most serious, complex, and historically significant issue facing Ireland, Britain and Europe - one that has global implications and potentially fundamental constitutional consequences for Ireland and the UK - is of course the hard, callous Brexit now being fashioned by the British government.

Despite specious mantric nonsense from Theresa May about “no return to the borders of the past” this hard Brexit, consequent upon Britain’s exit from the customs union would result in the re-imposition of a dangerous visible border against the will of the people of Ireland just when we should be foreseeing a vibrant all-island economy that would create prosperity throughout this land.

Already the Irish authorities have had to take contingency measures to identify potential customs stops of the kind between Norway and Sweden.

The psychological impact of a new Irish and EU-UK border, its policing and its security implications are profoundly worrying.

For nationalists, the Good Friday Agreement and its gains were predicated on the ever-growing irrelevance and invisibility of the border creating the climate for Ireland to integrate again, at her own speed over time, consistent with the critically important principle of consent.

SDLP leader Colum Eastwood did a good job conveying the gravity of Brexit particularly forcefully in UTV’s election debate last week.

Anyone doubting the incalculable economic dangers of Brexit to Ireland and Britain need only consider the 570 million euros already wiped off Irish food exports due to the fall in sterling; that that depreciation in sterling indicates that the financial markets reckon Britain’s economy is on the slide and that retail sales are falling and food prices rising.

Those still unconvinced about the overall dangers should read the recent compelling speeches of Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tony Blair, and of Baroness Nuala O’Loan in the House of Lords, which are easily available online.

It is ironic that Kenny is on the way out just when the national interest should dictate that his experience and contacts accrued over six years at the highest level are never more needed in the European Council.

Clearly Fine Gael TDs concerned for their own self-preservation are not big enough to take the kind of risk John Hume took when he put the greater good ahead of his own party’s interests during the early stages of the peace process.

Even those who’ll never forgive Blair over Iraq cannot rebut his powerful argument that “Brexit At Any Cost” is a “rush over the cliff’s edge”and something that voters did not endorse in the referendum.

Blair has started a very necessary debate but others less sullied must take his case forward if his mission to change the minds of Britons on Brexit is to get traction.

Theresa May is expected to trigger Brexit in the coming weeks. For all May’s waffle about the Joint Ministerial Committee (JMC) the devolved governments have no power to thwart the reckless rush to a hard Brexit that appeases the Tory Right, as is clear from the pronouncements of the first ministers of Scotland and Wales.

The likely re-imposition of direct rule will mean that there is no Northern Ireland voice on the JMC.

That may be neither here nor there given its feebleness but this Brexit emergency should of itself be an incentive for our politicians to restore the institutions so that our voices can be heard at the North-South Ministerial Council.

The Taoiseach in his speech said the Irish government would strive to get “the best deal for Ireland” and he clearly did not mean just 26 of our 32 counties.

So, it will be up to the Irish government to fight for Northern Ireland’s interests, as part of the 27 nation EU bloc which will ultimately negotiate the divorce with Britain – the author of this potential Brexit nightmare - because our interests converge with the Republic’s in a way London’s never will.

Dublin’s efforts on our behalf could create a new all-Ireland dynamic with consequences that cannot be foreseen, alongside the possible shifting of constitutional tectonic plates on the island of Great Britain.

Brexit has added considerably to the uncertainty of our world and these islands and Europe will never be the same again.