Opinion

Newton Emerson: Michelle O'Neill's red line makes direct rule more likely

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

Newton Emerson
Newton Emerson Newton Emerson

Remarks by Mike Nesbitt about cross-community voting distracted from what should have been the major story of the week. Northern Sinn Féin leader Michelle O’Neill has said her party will not return to the executive with Arlene Foster as first or deputy first minister until the DUP leader has been cleared by the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) inquiry. O’Neill added this was a red line issue - something Sinn Féin will not say about anything else. Naturally, Foster will not stand aside and the DUP cannot now ditch her, for fear of seeming to act at Sinn Féin’s behest. So at least six months of limbo beckons, making some form of direct rule inevitable. The NIO is still denying this but I understand draft bills have been prepared for a speedy intervention. The DUP will be enraged but almost half of its voters would prefer direct rule to continuing devolution, according to a poll three weeks ago. In fact, threatening unionists with direct rule is like threatening children with ice cream. While Sinn Féin is obviously playing a bigger game, is Gerry the Genius sure he has thought all this through?

**

A full list of RHI claimants, obtained by the Stephen Nolan show, has raised a host of new concerns about the scheme - including payments to apparently dormant companies. The Renewable Heat Association, representing a number of claimants, has threatened yet another injunction - despite publication of all claimants being a requirement under EU law. The ability of government and the courts to set that law aside while musing about privacy and ‘data protection’ is a reminder that real journalism is not about begging for scraps under the Freedom of Information Act but about going through the bins and daring anyone to stop you. In case another reminder is needed, the British government’s proposed new espionage act would make it a custodial offence for journalists merely to receive leaked documents on “sensitive economic information”.

**

Arlene Foster has said she wants to scrap the petition of concern. She has said this before, but previously it looked like the DUP was trying to remove a protection against assembly majority voting. Now it has been interpreted as a move to let majority votes through, particularly on same-sex marriage. This cannot be explained by the DUP slipping below the 30-seat threshold to raise a petition on its own - other unionists will always be on hand to make up the numbers. Perhaps the DUP wants to back away from certain divisive issues and the responsibility for blocking them. Or perhaps Foster is just mounting a diversion from RHI. It is odd that nobody has mentioned the Fresh Start agreement on petitions of concern, which contained a new draft protocol for their use plus a deadline to present a final agreed protocol to the speaker by December 2015. Nothing has been heard of it since. Could Sinn Féin not simply say ‘we have agreed on this already’?

**

As if the political landscape was not complicated enough, the Irish government is now teetering on the brink over false allegations of child abuse recorded against a Garda whistleblower. The UK had a similar scandal a decade ago when a botched terror raid against an innocent Muslim family in Forest Gate, east London, resulted in a man being shot then arrested on suspicion of making pornographic images of children. The Crown Prosecution Service stopped all charges after finding the ‘suspect’ could not have stored the images where they were found. This case remains notorious among British Muslims but the Metropolitan Police has managed to shrug it all off.

**

It has been another vintage week for Brexit catastrophism. Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern warned that customs posts might re-start the Troubles but failed to note any structures will only have to be in the Republic. He also poured scorn on the idea of an electronic border, saying: “I haven’t found anyone who can tell me what technology can actually manage this.” Perhaps he has not spoken to the deputy director general of Irish customs, Anthony Buckley, who last August reported technical discussions with UK counterparts. “A truck should be able to drive from Cork to Belfast or from Holyhead to Galway, without stopping,” Buckley said. Meanwhile, the current Taoiseach’s all-Ireland Brexit forum held a session on human rights. Contributions from the SDLP, the Human Rights Consortium and the Committee on the Administration of Justice all claimed Brexit will damage the rights protections in the Good Friday Agreement, although the UK Supreme Court has just found otherwise, in a case brought by the SDLP, the Human Rights Consortium and the Committee on the Administration of Justice.

**

First there were ambulance chasing lawyers. Then there were ambulance chasing police chases, with PSNI officers once again in the news for making civil claims against car theft victims. Now lawyers are also chasing bin lorries, with law firms in Northern Ireland advising anyone who has worked in or around such vehicles that they may have a claim for hearing loss. What this means for the use of ambulance and police car sirens can only be imagined.

newton@irishnews.com