IF you cross Albert Bridge in east Belfast at dusk on a winter's evening, you can't help but notice a huge congregation of starlings flitting across the sky in wonderful twisty patterns.
The nightly gathering of starlings, called a murmuration, wheels over the bridge, sometimes coming low over the Lagan, sometimes seeming to brush the tops of high rise buildings. It's a mystery, to me at least, how the birds always seem to know where they're going and never falter or crash into one another.
The ancient Romans used to interpret omens from birds in flight. They used an augur, which, handily given Donald Trump's installation last week, is the root of the words inaugurate or inauguration. An augur would look at the birds closely and take signs from their movement. No war or election was begun, no major change embarked upon, until the signs proved favourable.
It's doubtful whether any of the signs pointing to March's assembly elections prove favourable. Who amongst the electorate really wants another election less than a year after the last one. Up until a few months ago the odd poster was still clinging, weather-beaten and forgotten, to lamp-posts.
If 2016 showed us anything it's that interpreting signs from a flock of birds might be more accurate than official polls. Despite what some political analysts may say now, few really predicted Brexit or Trump's victory, just as few really predicted the 2007-2008 financial crash or the re-election of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
If we thought everything that could have happened did happen in 2016, this new year has included its own fair share of dramas, not least Martin McGuinness's decision to leave electoral politics. Despite signs last year that he was seriously ill his departure still came as a surprise. An emotional Mr McGuinness told a crowd gathered outside his Bogside home on Thursday that the decision "breaks my heart", but admitted he had no other option.
But the biggest surprise came from someone in the DUP. A DUP politician actually spoke generously about Mr McGuinness's contribution to peace. Not Arlene "never forgetting the past" Foster, who seemed almost relieved that a man she clearly found difficult to work with, given his history as a former IRA commander, had to stand aside. No, the real generosity came from that most unlikely of sources, Ian Paisley Jr. He "honestly and humbly" thanked Mr McGuinness, saying that his move from violence to politics had not only "saved lives but made the lives of countless people better in Northern Ireland because of the partnership government that we worked in".
Of course Mr Paisley's father had a close working relationship with Mr McGuinness and the pair remained friends after Ian Paisley left politics, right up to the former DUP leader's death. But Mr Paisley Jr's warm words seemed refreshing, shocking even, given the recent onslaught of sniping, negativity and `cover our own backs' attitude shown by many of his colleagues and his own party leader. Certainly he displayed an openness not seen in colleague Paul Givan who, in a bizarre move clearly designed to appeal to the DUP's more evangelical supporters, chose to bat away difficult questions by referencing Bible verses about a man who was hanged on a gallows he had prepared for another.
While Givan's attempt at Biblical exegesis was painful to watch, and smacked of `how can I out-pray Jonathan Bell', Mr Paisley Jr's approach seemed genuinely sincere. Certainly he spoke plainly and praised Mr McGuinness without feeling that he had to qualify that praise.
Incredibly, as one statesman, Mr McGuinness, left the political arena, an unlikely one emerged in the shape of Ian Paisley Jr. Who could have predicted that a man who seemed to have fallen out of favour with the the DUP's leadership, who, unlike his Westminster colleague Nigel Dodds, never seemed to have the ear of either Peter Robinson or Mrs Foster, a man previously only notable for high expenses bills and clumsy remarks about gay people, could have emerged as a voice of reason?
Ian Paisley Jr as the next DUP leader? He has the profile, the right name, an a virtually unshakeable Westminster seat in North Antrim. And despite his repeated assertions that he doesn't want the top job, he might have it bestowed upon him.
In truth no one knows how the electoral cards will fall. Not even those who insist they do. But after 13 months of political upsets, I'll be keeping an eye on those starlings.
