Opinion

Theresa May will play the long game on Brexit

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

Prime Minister Theresa May with the First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness at Stormont. Picture by Hugh Russell 
Prime Minister Theresa May with the First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness at Stormont. Picture by Hugh Russell  Prime Minister Theresa May with the First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness at Stormont. Picture by Hugh Russell 

Theresa May seems to have luck on her side: and, as both Thatcher and Bonaparte said, luck is the most valuable asset a politician can possess.

She didn't expect to be prime minister at this point and under these circumstances. Indeed, I'm pretty sure that she never thought she would be prime minister at any point. So there were no plots and no cunning plans to get her into Number 10, which meant that she didn't have to make many enemies or owe too many favours. And because Leadsom's withdrawal ensured that there wasn't a contest, she was able to avoid hostages to fortune, undeliverable promises and a torturous civil war.

The Leave campaign fell apart within hours of the referendum result, with most of their key figures flailing around like headless chickens. To add to their problems she appointed Davis, Johnson, Fox and Leadsom to the cabinet, knowing full well that the four of them didn't actually agree on how Brexit should be delivered. Then, for good measure, she undermined them by announcing that Article 50 wouldn't be triggered until there was a "UK-wide approach" which took account of the Remain vote in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Her challenge to her enemies - and that's exactly how she views them - is to come up with a credible, costed, thought-through Brexit strategy that she can sell to the party. If they fail, she won't shed too many tears, although she will punish them very publicly.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party is in freefall. Even if they get rid of Corbyn, which I think is more likely than not, they'll be hard pushed to do any political damage to May. She has the Brexit brigade exactly where she wants them and she'll know that most Labour MPs will support her soft-landing approach rather than anything which a prime minister Gove or Johnson would have come up with. In political/electoral terms May is clearly much more of a problem for Labour (with or without Corbyn) than a genuine Leaver.

The SNP sounds belligerent, yet its position is much more difficult than it was during the independence referendum. The dynamics and circumstances have changed and Scotland, if it opts for a second vote, would have very difficult questions to answer about EU membership, having to accept the Euro currency and possibly negotiating an exit strategy from the UK at the same time as an entry strategy to the EU. That is nightmare territory - albeit mostly for a Scotland that suddenly found itself independent.

Ireland

The SDLP and SF blether on about 'new possibilities' for Irish unity, but don't really believe it will happen. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have been very stroppy, too, but that's because they're terrified of a hard border and believe that talking up unity will make it easier to cut a soft deal between London/Dublin/Belfast/Brussels. They're right: and once it's cut they'll shut up again.

Her own party will give her a decent honeymoon because she can call an election any time she wants before 2020 and because the brutality of her cabinet reshuffle indicated a leader who takes no nonsense. It looks like she is prepared to play a long game with Brexit and I wouldn't rule out a deal that manages to keep the UK in the EU - which is where her instincts think it should be.

She isn't expecting her Brexit ministers to cobble together an exit package and she will be prepared to face down the 'Brexit at all costs' wing of her party further down the line. She knows, too, that the departure of Farage has weakened the appeal of UKIP, leaving a couple of million voters (who hadn't voted for years before the referendum) with nowhere else to go at the next general election. I suspect she'll also address some of the political/social/economic concerns of what she reckons are the 'soft Leave, anti-establishment' voters who could be won over to a continuing relationship within the EU.

Her biggest challenge, though, may come in the form of an ISIS-style attack in the UK. She was home secretary for six years and is, when it comes to terror threats, probably the best briefed prime minister we have had. She is no Thatcher, but she will be well aware that it was Thatcher's response to the Falklands which fashioned her legacy and secured another 15 years of Tory governments.

May has assumed office at a moment when the UK faces some of its most difficult problems since 1945. Succeeding a congenital ditherer like Cameron helps, because the country will probably welcome anything that looks like leadership. Her initial, genuine appeal for UK unity and listening to Scotland and Northern Ireland was also sensible. It's early days, yet it looks like we're in for a few years of high drama and low blows.

To slightly misquote Bette Davis: "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride."