DOWN to the wire and this assembly election has not set Northern Ireland alight with enthusiasm. In fairness the main issues are no longer about sovereignty, flags or parades.
It has taken a long time but there are actual some significant policy differences emerging but don’t expect anything overly exciting.
One thing for sure is that they all can’t be right - some will be winners and others will be losers.
Turnout is going to be a huge factor and the turnout figures have been slipping election after election as nearly half the population opt not to vote.
That’s such a waste. It may be a legitimate course of action but you can’t really give off about the state of the place if you don’t even attempt to change it.
The two big parties, Sinn Féin and the DUP, may not worry too much about a falling turnout. It’s likely both may lose some seats but not in any way that threatens their power at Stormont.
Both parties have played this election very low key, worried that those pesky non-voters if persuaded to come out may just decide to vote for alternatives.
Project Arlene seems to be working. It would be an incredible feat to replicate Peter Robinson’s high electoral watermark of the last election but it’s unlikely.
If the DUP can hover at 33-34 seats they will have had an excellent election. It’s hard to see any high profile casualties but East and South Belfast will be highly competitive.
Arlene isn’t Peter Robinson and that may thwart Mike Nesbitt’s bandwagon on Thursday. Nesbitt has successfully steered the UUP out of the executive and into Westminster.
Policy wise, he is pursuing a more liberal agenda and that’s bound to have an appeal to unionists who leaked to Alliance after the flags debacle.
The Ulster Unionists could pick up two or maybe three seats, which will bring them back to be they were before defections and expulsions during the life of the last assembly.
Nesbitt should be able to declare a good election post the results.
The SDLP leader faces a tough electoral test but Colum Eastwood has brought a freshness to his party. Best result is a neutral one.
Lose two seats but maybe gain two as well. Fermanagh on figures seems do-able.
East of the Bann wins are unlikely except in Strangford but that all depends on how far their Portaferry candidate has exercised himself. There are battlegrounds galore in Belfast, North, South and West as well as Derry. Eastwood will need to consolidate his authority whatever the result.
One big difference for the SDLP has been having a sure footed leader.
Sinn Féin look a bit jaded after throwing the kitchen sink at the Republic’s election and the leadership do look aged compared to other parties, which have started to rejuvenate.
Despite this Sinn Féin should hold their own in the election. It will be hard to hold onto the five Sinn Féin seats in West Belfast as People Before Profit seem to be a channel for discontent.
Fermanagh looks like a pig's ear of an internal fight with too many candidates on the ballot. However no one is able to assail its position as the lead nationalist party.
Alliance has predicted three seat gains - though it’s difficult to see where those gains are going to come from. They will have expectations of two seats in South Belfast but one looks more realistic.
East Belfast may be earmarked for another but the Westminster votes for Naomi Long were actually on loan and will revert back to their natural homes. A big problem for Alliance post election will be its image as an east of the Bann party – possibly with no Catholic assembly members.
The Green Party says it’s optimistic and South Belfast probably gives them their best chance based on being the most 'transfer' friendly.
The others such as UKIP and TUV struggle getting support in the right areas because they are so stretched. UKIP’s candidates, based on limited media exposure, seem poor - though campaigning on the referendum may have helped the party.
Jim Allister needs more bodies to make the TUV as a project actually viable. As for the Conservatives in Northern Ireland and those brave members of the Labour Party who are running as independents – they will soon find out that it’s not just the wind that’s cold. There’s a chill factor waiting for them on the doors too.
But remember it's PR so you can chose your least ‘worst’ option!
