FRESH Start or Jump Start? Is it a genuine effort by the DUP and Sinn Fein to take control of the agenda and move forward together, or just a crutch, a defibrillator and a bucket list to keep them going until next May’s Assembly election? Who knows?
Last March the DUP believed that Cameron would need them to prop up his minority government; while Sinn Fein thought they’d be dealing with a Labour/SNP coalition that would more sympathetic to their anti-austerity arguments.
Both called it wrong — most of us did, to be fair—which meant that neither of them had a sympathetic ear in Westminster.
So it has been obvious for at least six months that a deal had to be done: and since neither party wanted direct rule it was similarly obvious that a deal would be done.
An October/November conclusion seemed likely because Robinson didn’t want to go to his conference — at the La Mon Hotel tomorrow — and tell them that the process remained stuck and that the history books would compare him to Faulkner rather than Lord Carson.
Instead, he will be telling them that he’s so happy with the deal that he’s opting for retirement.
Sinn Fein didn’t want the albatross of failure around their neck, either, particularly since they want potential voters in the south to look up here and see them playing a constructive rather than a destructive role in a coalition government.
Perception is everything in politics, especially when you’re fighting two elections as part of an ‘all island’ strategy.
I think it was a wise decision to make this what some people have described as an ‘ourselves alone’ deal.
Trying to get the support of the three other parties was always going to be difficult and even more so when two of them are going out of their way to outflank you.
Also, the DUP and Sinn Fein had no way of guaranteeing that the UUP and SDLP would, when push came to shove, get the deal through their respective executives: bearing in mind that neither endorsed the Stormont House Agreement last January.
This is the biggest test, so far, of the SF/DUP axis. As both leaders noted: “The essence of this Agreement, the vision which must inspire our leadership, is our shared belief that the civic values of respect, mutuality, fairness and justice must take precedence over those narrow values that too often manifest in division.
"This document signals our resolve to engender the sea change so longed for by our community—a new beginning, an opportunity to move forward with a real sense of hope and purpose.”
This is their agreement. It is up to them to deliver it. They have no one else to blame if it falls apart at the seams in a few weeks time.
And they won’t be able to revisit and rewrite this project if their own stupidity and mutual antagonisms grind it to a halt if one of them puts self-interest before collective interest.
They’ve a very sceptical audience to win over and they needn’t expect yet another honeymoon period to tide them over. Get it wrong this time and they’ll destroy even the tiniest glimmer of hope. Picking the right leader to replace Robinson is also essential.
The nature of an ‘ourselves alone’ deal does, of course, present the UUP and SDLP — and, to a lesser extent, Alliance — with a problem?
What do they do? Buying into the deal means they risk being swallowed up again, getting no credit for success, but sharing the blame for any failure.
Yet if they don’t buy in then it means they have to present a credible alternative and explain what they would do instead. That’s a big risk for both of them: Nesbitt is on a roll and Eastwood is just through the door, so there are obviously electoral opportunities for them.
Working together, presenting themselves as an alternative to the SF/DUP axis, is more likely to pay off than just landing separate blows on the big two. But if the DUP/SF can pull off the “this-time-we-really-are-working-together” routine, then Nesbitt and Eastwood may have problems after all.
In my experience the cracks in the woodwork of these deals tend to appear in the first couple of weeks, usually after a journalist asks the parties to give their interpretation of a particular line or policy.
Or, sometimes, the party faithful is just less enthusiastic about something than the leadership had imagined. Either way, that gives us until the end of this month to gauge the mood and strength.
My gut instinct, though, is that there’s enough in it to keep the DUP and SF comfortably in their top dog positions. Even without Robinson at the helm.
