Opinion

Every seat counts in making of government

STANDING in a bakery on Saturday morning, a woman with her two daughters remarked that the SDLP election poster of Justin McNulty on the lamppost outside bore more than a striking resemblance to James Bond actor Daniel Craig.

The shop assistant giggled in agreement. Every asset counts when it comes to elections and it can't do much harm to the newcomer's campaign unless he meets a Bond villain or dons a pair of Speedos. Elsewhere the election is about as interesting as one of Michael Portillo's TV programmes on great British railway journeys. Unless you include Michelle Gildernew's use of Facebook to share with us her hair-styling techniques, replete with rollers so big that Caterpillar could have designed them.

The broadcasters' decision to leave the Northern Ireland parties out of the leaders' debates has proven to be farcical. It's highly unlikely that UKIP, the Greens or Plaid Cymru will have as many seats as the DUP when the election is over.

The clumsy attempt to pacify Northern Ireland with a half hour on Newsnight shown throughout the UK was disastrous.

Only the SDLP's Mark Durkan and the DUP's Nigel Dodds had anything relevant to say about Westminster and Northern Ireland and when the Ashers Bakery issue came up, with references by the interviewer to the "gay cake", it was comical to listen to the UUP leader Mike Nesbitt explain to British viewers that it wasn't the actual cake that was gay.

Not that many watched it. Electric kettles were being switched on across England in the same way as during a Coronation Street ad break. Ulster is a big yawn for British voters, as our issues seem petty.

The self-styled Opposition Debate (because Cameron decided to duck it, taking his lame duck deputy PM Clegg out of the frame too) was interesting because it clearly showed that Miliband for all his shortcomings could be prime minister.

Not that Red Ed laid a glove on the feisty and fiery poppet of Scotland's first minister, the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon.

Ms Sturgeon is a natural debater who can articulate clearly in that no-nonsense, dour Scottish manner.

She seems made of the stuff one imagines the firebrand preacher John Knox was like when he hectored the haughty Mary Queen of Scots. Though one suspects Knox would turn in his grave at her policies. When it comes to economics, Scotland's first minister is like the political version of sixties pools winner Viv Nicholson who proclaimed: "Spend, spend, spend!" However, her forthright challenge to Miliband to work with her, Plaid Cymru and others to rid Westminster of the hated Tories must have sent a cold chill down the spines of those at Sinn Féin HQ as the two nationalist parties of Scotland and Wales clearly believe that their numbers will count in forming the next UK government.

Certainly two Sinn Féin Westminster candidates in winnable seats, Newry and Armagh and Fermanagh/South Tyrone, seemed to waiver slightly, suggesting in interviews that abstentionism was not written in stone.

Connolly House spin-doctors moved quickly to dismiss the media interpretation and so did another SF candidate in unambiguous terms - albeit he is contesting a seat where it's unlikely he will face that dilemma after this election. Whether Sinn Féin are softening up their own followers or trying to woo wavering SDLP voters to switch in the belief that another republican shibboleth is about to go is uncertain.

What is certain is that voters are getting the message loud and clear from the mainstream media and all the political parties that this election will be close, that every vote will count, which will make every seat count in deciding not only the make up of the next British government but the thrust of the policies which will affect all of the devolved regions, including Northern Ireland.

The dilemma for Sinn Féin is that they framed this election in Northern Ireland as "fighting Tory cuts" when there are no Tories in the NI assembly or any members elected from the north to Westminster.

Sinn Féin counter-argues that any deals that need to be done can be done directly with the government of the day. Unfortunately the days are long gone when Sinn Féin had chips to barter with such as the stability of the peace process.

The next government needs bums on seats; even the late republican MP for Fermanagh, Frank Maguire, knew that. He went to Westminster to abstain in person in order to bring a government down.