Opinion

Irish interests may never have been more relevant

THE election has definitely kicked off, as David Cameron made a deeply personal attack on Ed Miliband's suitability for the role of prime minister and made an even more shameless promise about the health service having 24/7 full consultant cover in all English hospitals by 2020.

The head of the British Medical Association, Dr Mark Porter, dismissed the prime minister's promises as an "empty election pledge".

Cameron has the upper hand on his Labour counterpart - he is an experienced media performer and his personal ratings are much higher than that of the Conservative party.

Mr Miliband's ratings compared to his party's are in complete reverse.

The Tories are not a party loved by British voters but Mr Cameron comes out top when they are thinking about stewardship of the country. So in a way, Cameron is right, "the personal is national".

Miliband is Labour's Achilles heel and we can expect the Tories to get even more personal as the weeks go on.

As the DUP hang out their stall for supporting either Labour or the Conservatives, they have also managed to hang out the forlorn Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt by luring him into an electoral pact which has no up side for Ulster Unionism.

Never has a Christian so willingly entered the lion's den as Mr Nesbitt. It's now clear that the once mighty Ulster Unionist Party is reduced from orchestra strength to a one-man band.

Sinn Féin continues to taunt the SDLP over their principled opposition against electoral pacts, despite the former accusing the DUP/UUP selective pacts of being nothing more than a sectarian move. So Sinn Féin's response to a base sectarian pact is to actually get nationalists to respond in kind.

Sinn Féin knows that the core of sectarianism is never far from the surface in Northern Ireland and runs through our communities like the stripes in brandy balls.

As a matter of fact they count on it. It wouldn't surprise anyone, even at this late stage, if Sinn Féin unilaterally withdrew from South Belfast in order to send a not so subtle message to nationalists in North Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone to stiffen their sinews against the unionist pacts, whilst also being able to embarrass the SDLP leader in the leafy suburbs of Malone.

The SDLP may cry foul play but there is no foul play during elections, it's totally a blood sport.

Sinn Féin has also said it wants to see regime change at Westminster and hopes for a Labour administration. That being the case, who would be surprised that even if they fight the upcoming election on an abstentionist ticket, they wouldn't rack up at the Palace of Westminster to vote if Labour needed the numbers?

Some may say "never" but "never" has never been a shibboleth for Sinn Féin under the leadership of Gerry Adams. Naomi Long, the Alliance Party's sole representative at Westminster, looks increasingly vulnerable in East Belfast. The first past the post system does not favour the small 'u' unionist party.

The SDLP will be seeking to improve their performance under the leadership of Alasdair McDonnell. They need a clear and not spun margin of victory. Margaret Ritchie looks best placed to do that. Success for the SDLP will be holding what they have and giving the best tilt they can in Newry & Armagh. One suspects that some candles to St Martin are being lit already by the SDLP faithful.

Yet somehow Sinn Féin, though very dominant in the north and challenging in the south, seems less invincible. They have started to slip in the polls in the Republic as Fine Gael gets into its stride at 27 per cent and Fianna Fáil holds solidly, if not stubbornly at 18 per cent. (It must be remembered that Fianna Fáil's strength was somewhat under-estimated at the last local elections and they managed to emerge as the largest party.)

Even the beleaguered Irish Labour Party is showing signs of suffering a recovery at 11 per cent.

Worryingly, support for the rag tag bunch of independents in the Republic stands at 28 per cent.

Some existing independents published an agenda of understanding last week which is complete and utter tosh. To paraphrase Lloyd George, there is more chance of spooning mercury with a fork than getting any credible cohesion in any group that contains members as diverse as Shane Ross and Finian McGrath.

The forthcoming UK election will be a landmark one and every vote in every seat will count.

Irish interests may never have been more relevant at Westminster since Parnell.