WE'VE been here before, several times in fact. No, not waiting for the British prime minister and the taoiseach to arrive to oversee a deal - waiting for the DUP to honour their promises and operate agreements they have signed.
In case you forget, in February 2010 Gordon Brown and Brian Cowen - remember them? - came to Hillsborough to twist the arms of the DUP and compel them to agree to devolve policing and justice as they'd promised in 2007 as part of the implementation of the December 2006 St Andrews Agreement. The strong-arm tactics in 2010 nearly caused a split in the DUP with a late-night standoff between the Robinson squad and the hot gospellers.
What most people forget is that Hillsborough also set out terms for agreeing procedures on Orange marches and the outstanding aspects of the St Andrews Agreement. All that fell apart in the autumn when, at the behest of the Orange order, the unionists scuppered a deal on marches. As for the DUP, they never had any intention of abiding by what they'd agreed at St Andrews.
So, here's the problem. Kenny and Cameron are due to arrive tomorrow. Peter Robinson has tried to set a terminus for them at the weekend. Do the DUP negotiate on Sundays now? It used to be they didn't. If they still don't, then Robinson means Saturday. Suppose they get a deal or bits of one. How do they implement it?
For the British the priority is coercing Sinn Féin into agreeing to welfare cuts. Once some fudge is cooked up on that item Cameron will leave because the treasury can implement it immediately. What will Sinn Féin get in return? The short answer, as they must surely have learned by now from bitter experience, is nothing, zilch, nada. Why? Because it depends on the DUP to implement what SF gets and the DUP do not keep their word. Never have.
There is a way out of this and it's as follows. The two governments need to establish what's called a calendar of operations. There's much talk about the wonderful example the Good Friday Agreement offers for establishing a framework for a settlement. Actually the most successful post-war settlement was between Austria and Italy over the disputed region called Alto Adige if you're Italian, or if you're Austrian, Sudtirol. Leave aside the details of the dispute which had been going on since the 16th century in one form or another. Suffice to say people were killing each other and blowing things up until the 1960s. Eventually a deal called the paccheto was struck between Vienna and Rome in 1972. It contained 137 provisions and took 20 years to implement. Crucially it contained a calendar of operations whereby each step was taken only when the other government had carried out the previous step according to a set timetable. Finally in 1992 the dispute was declared closed and Austria and Italy signed it off in New York in 1992 at the UN building. Today Sudtirol is the wealthiest region in Italy though most people there speak German.
It would never have happened if the two governments had not remained closely involved throughout the whole period keeping each other honest. Sinn Féin know this and they did try to have a calendar of operations included in the St Andrews Agreement but if the Irish and British governments do not remain attentive then there is no point in having one.
What experience teaches here is that if the taoiseach and prime minister swan in and sign an agreement, then leave, there is no way the DUP will operate it. Sinn Féin must not sign a deal with no dates on it.
In the present circumstances with the Conservatives inviting the DUP into bed with them, Sinn Féin would be crazy to sign up again to anything that didn't have cast iron guarantees written into it as they did both in 2006 at St Andrews and in 2010 at Hillsborough.
It used to be that northern nationalists could place some reliance on the Irish government to exert continuous pressure on Westminster. Not since the present crew took over in Dublin. First ex-Stickie Gilmore and now Flanagan who is a perfect match for our clueless proconsul.