SIR Jeffrey Donaldson has assured us that after weeks of unprecedented upheaval, the atmosphere within the DUP ranks is much more settled.
It’s hard to disagree with him. We’ll surely wait a long time before again witnessing the same level of public rebellion, intrigue and recrimination that played out over those few farcical weeks at the beginning of the summer.
But to suggest that the DUP leader’s problems evaporated with the unceremonious ousting of Arlene Foster and latterly Edwin Poots is misguided.
Internal issues persist, but arguably more seriously for the new leader, big electoral challenges await.
First, however, there is a reasonably urgent housekeeping matter to be addressed. Sir Jeffrey wants to lead from Stormont and wants to be first minister, which means he must be an MLA rather than an MP. Due to the circumstances under which he assumed the leader’s role, his ambitions in this regard hadn’t been fully thought through.
Setting aside the very real possibility that the DUP may lose the Lagan Valley Westminster seat when Sir Jeffrey vacates it, potential routes back to Stormont for the DUP leader are limited.
Perhaps he could be co-opted into the seat due to be vacated by Arlene Foster in Fermanagh-South Tyrone or by persuading his ally Diane Dodds to move aside in Upper Bann? However, for a variety of reasons it appears these notions have been summarily rejected.
Another option was to replace Jim Wells as either an MLA or assembly election candidate in South Down, the constituency in which Sir Jeffrey was born and where he was first elected. Although not without its potential pitfalls, this route seemed the most likely.
But yesterday, Sir Jeffrey made himself a hostage to fortune by insisting that he wanted to run in Lagan Valley. No doubt this had alarm bells ringing in the Lisburn office he shares with Edwin Poots and Paul Givan, the two sitting MLAs in the constituency who together campaigned against Sir Jeffrey in the party’s first ever leadership contest.
Some may regard this determination as very brave – the new leader demonstrating his belief that the DUP can secure three out of five MLAs in the constituency. As he said himself, the party came within little over 400 votes short of achieving this in 2017.
His supporters would argue that Sir Jeffrey is leading by example, highlighting the need not just to hold seats but to make gains too in an election cast as crucial for unionism in its campaign against the Irish Sea border. They would also add that the new leader has broad appeal and is therefore more transfer friendly.
But elsewhere the signs are not good. A lot has changed in the period since the 2017 assembly election, with opinion polls suggesting the DUP is haemorrhaging votes both to the TUV and Alliance. The high-risk approach in Lagan Valley will surely unnerve the two sitting MLAs, who will be watching closely how the constituency campaign is managed and how voters are asked to mark their preferences on the ballot.
In a scenario that has the potential to get very messy, Sir Jeffrey must surely look with a degree of envy at Sinn Féin, a well-oiled political machine that as recent events in Derry show, has little time for sentimentality or indulging personal ambition.
