Northern Ireland

John Manley: Edwin Poots' departure throws up fresh problems for the DUP

The favourite to succeed Edwin Poots as DUP leader is Sir Jeffrey Donaldson. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire
The favourite to succeed Edwin Poots as DUP leader is Sir Jeffrey Donaldson. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire The favourite to succeed Edwin Poots as DUP leader is Sir Jeffrey Donaldson. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire

EDWIN Poots’ leadership of the DUP was expected to be tempestuous, with most predicting it would end in disaster.

It was generally assumed his potential downfall would come with the result of the next election and an anticipated slump in the DUP’s vote.

Nobody however expected him to be ousted after just 21 days over a failure to listen to those within in his own ranks, the very characteristic that damned his predecessor.

But now he is gone, leaving a legacy of gaffes, reactionary opinions, and a place in the record books as the shortest serving party leader in Stormont’s history.

So where does the DUP go now?

The general consensus, though as yet unconfirmed, is that Sir Jeffrey Donaldson will be crowned leader, avoiding a rerun of the kind of divisive contest that helped ensure Mr Poots was never quite able to settle comfortably into the boss’s chair.

This is the outcome that most expected on May 14 and to some degree it steadies a DUP ship that has been plagued for the past two months by storms and mutiny.

The Lagan Valley MP is regarded as sensible and pragmatic.

Yet Sir Jeffrey’s expected coronation throws up its own problems, a number of which were highlighted during the leadership contest, and some that have a arisen as a consequence of Edwin Poots’ brief tenure in the top job.

His most immediate difficulty, which falls into the latter category, is how to play his way out of the current crisis. Sir Jeffrey, like all unionists, will clearly be aggrieved by the secretary of state’s pledge that Westminster will legislate on Irish language if Stormont fails to move things forward by the autumn. The most obvious way to prevent this happening is to ensure the cultural package agreed in New Decade New Approach is dealt with by the assembly quickly but this has the potential to prompt internal rebellion if handled badly.

In the short-term also the new leader must decide what to do about First Minister Paul Givan, a Poots appointee. Ostensibly this is problematic, however, keeping the Lagan Valley MLA in the role for the meantime addresses two difficulties – it will help appease the Poots’ supporters, while also providing a degree of stability in the executive. The decision here is likely to influenced by how deep the internal wounds are and how willing both DUP factions are to put the events of recent weeks behind them. The attitude of other parties, namely Sinn Féin, will feed into this complicated mix.

In the medium to long term, Sir Jeffrey must decide whether he wishes to become an MLA in order to lead his party from Stormont, a move he signalled he wanted to make during the leadership contest. This could be achieved through a co-option though it’s unlikely his two party colleagues in Lagan Valley will step aside to accommodate him, meaning he must wait for the next assembly election. Either way, his resignation from Westminster will trigger a by-election in a constituency where Alliance is enjoying a surge in support. Coupled with recent opinion polls which reflect ebbing support for the DUP, the party would not relish a by-election.

On top of this turbulent mix are the same problems about the protocol, the on-off boycott of the north-south institutions and falling poll ratings that Arlene Foster and her successor faced. Sir Jeffrey, or whoever the next DUP leader is, inherits a party that is reeling from weeks of internecine warring, while struggling to finds its identity in a rapidly shifting social and political landscape.

The Lagan Valley MP’s demeanour suggests calmness and a willingness to listen to other perspectives, arguably the antithesis of what Edwin Poots was offering. In the coming weeks he needs to stress these differences but ensure that in highlighting a change in attitude, he doesn’t unnecessarily paint himself into a corner.