MASS antibody testing could lower the spread of Covid-19 and cut the annual death toll by 12 per cent, statistical analysis by a Queen's University Belfast academic suggests.
Dr Luis Guimaraes, lecturer in Economics from Queen's Management School, found people who wrongly believe they have some immunity to the infection are less likely to follow health guidelines aimed at cutting transmission rates.
Recent studies had suggested uncertainty about whether individuals can catch the virus increases the spread and raises the number of Covid-19 related deaths.
An antibody test would confirm who is not immune to catching the virus.
Most individuals infected with Covid-19 do not develop symptoms or only mild ones and are unaware of the infection - making it difficult to trace them and prevent contagion.
The research published in the Journal of Mathematical Economics saw Dr Guimaraes build an economic model of epidemics which extended the standard SIR epidemiological model - used to guide policy during the pandemic - to include individuals' choice of social distancing.
In the model, when infections rise, people were aware of increased risk of infection and lower their social contacts, reducing the `R' number.
However, he found that when individuals who could be at risk of catching the virus erroneously believe to be immune they reduce their social activity by less than otherwise.
Using antibody tests to inform people of their risk would `reduce average social activity and permanently lower Covid-19 related deaths'.
Dr Guimaraes found antibody testing could prevent around 12 per cent of Covid-19 related deaths within a year.
"This research suggests that there can be sizeable gains in terms of lives saved from conducting large-scale antibody testing," he said.
Antibody testing is being conducted across the UK to help guide policy and is seen as one way to help the economy reopen after lockdown.
However, Dr Guimaraes said large-scale antibody testing could help before that.
"By revealing that susceptible individuals are not immune, antibody testing increases their social-distancing, lowering the scale of the pandemic."
He said during the first wave of infections, 85 per cent of those infected were not diagnosed.
