Dennis McFadden may have been pulled out of the New IRA by his MI5 handlers to save a more valuable agent, according to one a leading counter insurgency expert.
It is almost a month since McFadden was last seen in his Glengormely, on the outskirts of Belfast, where he used a home bar bugged with listening devices to record dissident republicans.
He went missing around two weeks before the arrest of nine members of the dissident political group Saoradh and a Palestinian doctor.
Several months before his departure he had organised two meetings in Co Tyrone of the alleged leadership of the New IRA.
The meetings at two houses, one close to Creggan and the second near Gortin in Co Tyrone, were wired for sound with both listening devices and cameras throughout.
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The footage of the suspects recorded by MI5 at both meetings is said to be crystal clear, with all present easily identifiable.
So cocky was McFadden, that he even left a review on the website Trip Advisor describing the property used to sting the senior dissidents as “exceptional”.
“Would definitely recommend this house”, posted the agent who is now in protective custody along with his wife and young child.
Philip Ingram served more than 26 years in the British army, the majority of that in security and counter insurgency.
He said the McFadden case would not be unusual, in that having agents bedded in for a long time was always the preferred option for the intelligence agencies.
"Development and recruitment of agents is never for short term effect, you're asking them to bed in for many years of their life.
"These people don't respond to an advert, they either volunteer or are compromised, although the latter tend not to last long, the ones who last the longest usually have a motivation".
Mr Ingram said with McFadden, who was a former Special Constable in Scotland, he had more than likely volunteered rather than been either a serving officer or a compromised asset.
"When the Met police infiltrated animal rights protesters, they put police officers in and gave them deep cover.
"But that is a very difficult and dangerous thing to manage, it is much easier to run an agent, the duty of care is easier than putting a card carrying police officer in.
"McFadden would have been run out of Hollywood, he would have had a principal handler and someone assigned to help the handler.
"They would arrange meetings irregularly over a period of time and the agent can also ring if they have urgent information.
"Because all this would have been set up beforehand, he would have known he was being compromised and that his time was up.
"Pulling out a long running, successful agent would only ever done for two reasons.
"If he was already compromised or if there is someone else still in there, and so they would take out an agent who had run their course and leave the more valuable asset in place.
"Looking at what we know so far, it was a brilliant operation, a very successful intelligence operation."
