Northern Ireland

Analysis: Roadmap out of lockdown reliant on suppressing virus - and Stormont winning public trust

Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill has said Stormont must throw "everything but the kitchen sink" at the care home crisis to help win the battle against Covid-19
Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill has said Stormont must throw "everything but the kitchen sink" at the care home crisis to help win the battle against Covid-19 Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill has said Stormont must throw "everything but the kitchen sink" at the care home crisis to help win the battle against Covid-19

Stormont's long-awaited roadmap out of lockdown may not be "calendar-led" but there are hopes the first phase could be rolled out by the end of this month - if the virus remains suppressed.

Much of the recovery plan is contingent on keeping Covid-19 infection rates - known as the Reproduction or 'R' number - at bay as well as the health system's ability to cope in the event of a second surge.

Testing, tracing and isolating cases will be central to getting society to the final 'stage five', when the phased return of restaurants and pubs has been earmarked, but this could be any time between September and December.

READ MORE: Stormont ministers urged to give timeline for leaving coronavirus lockdownOpens in new window ]

In an interview with The Irish News earlier this week, Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill revealed that the exit strategy would differ from the Republic's in that it would not be date specific, as she and her Executive colleagues were concerned people "would plan around certain dates" at a time when the trajectory of the disease remains uncertain.

But she indicated the north's blueprint lent itself to people interpreting different stages, which will be reviewed every three weeks.

"We're giving people the sequencing of categories of things that can change. Everything is dependent on disease spread. However, people can work it out for themselves if they're in the category of the first three weeks or the second three weeks and so on. People can put dates to it but we'll be working on the basis its being done in stages," she said.

First minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill at Stormont before announcing the executive's coronavirus recovery plan. Picture by Liam McBurney, Press Association
First minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill at Stormont before announcing the executive's coronavirus recovery plan. Picture by Liam McBurney, Press Association First minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill at Stormont before announcing the executive's coronavirus recovery plan. Picture by Liam McBurney, Press Association

Following this logic, this means once the current period of lockdown ends - a further three weeks of restrictions were imposed last Thursday as R was deemed too high at 0.8 - the first relaxation of measures may begin.

Potentially then, groups of four to six people who do not share a household will be allowed to meet outdoors while maintaining social distancing measures by the end of May or early June.

However, the key to ensuring the first phase happens will be getting R - the average number of people each individual with the virus infects - reduced to 0.5.

In Germany, which has been lauded for its mass testing approach since the beginning of the pandemic, concerns were flagged at the beginning of this week when transmission rates began to rise (R went above 1) following a significant relaxation of lockdown measures.

Despite this, Chancellor Angela Merkel said restrictions will remain lifted and appealed to the public to "keep to basic rules" while the government closely monitors the situation across regions.

Germany has recorded more than 7,600 fatalities compared to the UK's death toll of more than 32,000.

Confusion remains as to how Northern Ireland's R number is higher than England, where there has been a much greater number of hospital deaths.

Virologists have suggested figures may be skewed due to how care home deaths are collated.

What is certain is that the lethal impact of coronavirus has moved away from the north's hospitals - ICU admissions dropped to their lowest level at 19 patients on Tuesday - with the battle now focused on the most vulnerable in care homes where almost half of Covid-related fatalities have been.

Ms O'Neill yesterday told the Assembly that they need to "throw everything but the kitchen sink"  at the crisis and her plea to have universal testing for both vulnerable residents and staff, including repeat testing, must be heeded if we are to get beyond the roadmap's first phase.

A total of 447 people in the north have died from coronavirus
A total of 447 people in the north have died from coronavirus A total of 447 people in the north have died from coronavirus

The Stormont plan stresses the executive will only relax restrictions in line with the long-term interests of people's health and wellbeing, while First Minister Arlene Foster yesterday appealed for people to be patient.

"We will get there. It will take time, but we will get there," she said.

Marginalised groups, vulnerable people and low-income earners have disproportionately borne the brunt of Covid-19 while those "unskilled" workers in care homes and on shop floors have risked their lives for others while keeping society and our health system afloat.

In order to win people's support and "patience", the north's political leaders must keep communities informed and engage them more closely in the months ahead than during the initial two months of this crisis.

A 'top-down' approach will not suppress this virus.

Earning the public's trust and getting them on board to continue to obey shutdown can only be achieved with increased government transparency and information.

It is only way to get out - and stay out - of lockdown.