Just 169 votes separated Sinn Féin and the SDLP when Elisha McCallion wrested the seat from Mark Durkan in 2017 in an historic victory for her party.
Derry was the very heartland of the SDLP since the Foyle constituency was created in 1983. The party’s legendary leader, John Hume held the seat until 2005 when his appointed heir, Mark Durkan took over.
McCallion’s success rocked the SDLP and it was not surprising that new leader, Colm Eastwood set out the return of the seat as one of his priorities. With both candidates staunchly pro-Remain in a pro-Remain constituency, the key issue in Derry simply comes down to who will win the seat.
If McCallion retains, it will consolidate Sinn Féin’s claim to the city while knocking serious dents in Eastwood’s SDLP leadership. However, a win for Eastwood would vindicate his leadership and could signal that the SDLP has turned an electoral corner.
With so few votes separating the two big hitters, any developments could impact on the outcome. The SDLP leader’s decision to offer a free vote on abortion could entice some of its core voters to switch to Aontú’s Anne McCloskey. A retired GP, she took 1,032 first preferences in this year’s local government elections, standing on an anti-abortion ticket.
However, Sinn Féin’s stance on the issue could also coax some of their traditional vote to put their X beside McCloskey.
Buoyed by their local government success when they won their first two seats on Derry City and Strabane District council for a number of years, Alliance’s Rachael Ferguson will be hopeful of a better showing than 2017 when then candidate John Doherty registered just 847 votes. The same can be said for People Before Profit’s Shaun Harkin who, with EamonnMcCann, is one of two new PBP councillors.
While he will not be elected, the DUP’s Gary Middleton won’t be troubled by his closest unionist rival, Ulster Unionist, Darren Guy. However, the DUP’s pro-Brexit stance might sway some younger unionist voters to look for a suitable non-nationalist Remainer and they may find this in Alliance’s Ferguson.
Lying cheek by jowl with the border, Brexit means more in Derry than most other UK constituencies. For the last 25 years, that border has ceased to be a factor in the city’s life as it became more and more invisible. The possibility of the return of any kind of a hard border is feared more in areas such as Derry, Strabane and Newry than anywhere else in Europe. For that reason, Brexit as the main, if not only, election issue likely to influence the majority of voters.
2019 CANDIDATES
Colum Eastwood (SDLP)
Rachael Ferguson (ALL)
Darren Guy (UUP)
Shaun Harkin (PbP)
Elisha McCallion (SF)
Anne McCloskey (Aontú)
Gary Middleton (DUP)
2017 SHARE OF VOTE
SF - 39.7%
SDLP - 39.3%
DUP - 16.1%
PbP – 3%
ALL - 1.8%
Electorate: 73,549
Majority: 169
