John O’Dowd’s decision to challenge Michelle O’Neill for the deputy leader position will have sent shockwaves through Sinn Féin.
Openly challenging an incumbent figure in this manner is not the done thing within the party, however normal an experience it may be for other political parties across this island and beyond.
A Rubicon has been crossed.
When news of Martin McGuinness’s illness first emerged into the public domain in early 2017, the perceived wisdom was that either John O’Dowd or Conor Murphy would likely replace him as the party’s northern leader.
The subsequent decision of the party leadership to promote Michelle O’Neill was a shock both internally and to a wider audience because she had not been viewed as someone with similar experience or standing to her two colleagues.
After all, it was John O’Dowd who was chosen by the party to stand in for Martin McGuinness as deputy first minister allowing the latter to contest the presidential election in 2011, and the Lurgan man was widely viewed as having been a competent and successful education minister in Stormont, regularly put forward by the party to articulate policy on a range of issues.
Sinn Féin’s successful elections in March and May of 2017 to the assembly and Westminster silenced the doubters, but lingering concerns remained.
The party’s poor electoral outings this year, north and south, has led many to question the leadership performance and direction.
The general air of malaise that defined the party during the latter years of the Stormont devolution era is threatening to return.
Sinn Féin has lost the momentum it gained in 2017, and it does not appear to know how or why that has happened.
Irish unity is on the agenda as never before, yet Sinn Féin are not yielding electoral benefits. A snap Westminster election would likely see the party suffer its first major loss to the SDLP in a generation, with Foyle seemingly destined to return to the SDLP fold.
The party’s position on not returning to Stormont until key rights-based issues are resolved will not be under threat whoever succeeds in the deputy leadership battle. 'No return to the status quo' as a message continues to resonate strongly across nationalism.
The Stormont devolution experience was not a happy one for republicans.
Whilst there has been much focus on the DUP’s role in creating the circumstances leading to Sinn Féin pulling the plug on devolution, republicans have been much slower to engage in a process of critical self-reflection to address the reasons why their party base and broader nationalism felt that Stormont was not delivering.
John O’Dowd’s candidacy is a clear indication that some senior figures understand that the status quo that must not be returned to includes the manner in which Sinn Féin conducts its business.
This is a challenge to the party’s modus operandi, and it will be very difficult to put the genie back into the bottle.
John O’Dowd is by some distance the party’s best media performer in the north.
At critical times, including during Barry McElduff’s Kingsmills comments episode, it was O’Dowd who struck the right tone for the party, helping to defuse the situation.
If successful, he would bring a sense of gravitas to the party leadership that has been missing since the departure of Martin McGuinness.
Michelle O’Neill will remain the favourite to hold on to her post unless and until other significant party figures publicly endorse John O’Dowd.
Time will tell if that is likely to happen. If he fails, O’Dowd will have at least succeeded in further advancing the modernisation process for the party.
- Chris Donnelly is a political commentator.
