Northern Ireland

Brexit makes Northern Ireland less attractive for foreign direct investment, Stormont report says

An EU flag flies at the front of the European Parliament building in Strasbourg, France
An EU flag flies at the front of the European Parliament building in Strasbourg, France An EU flag flies at the front of the European Parliament building in Strasbourg, France

NORTHERN Ireland would be less attractive for foreign direct investment (FDI) if it left the EU single market, a report has found.

The report, published by Stormont's Department for the Economy, said the north would experience a reduction of FDI-related job creation in any of the currently considered Brexit outcomes.

However, it would become more attractive to FDI and generate new jobs if it remained in the single market for goods and services, and Britain left.

The 47-page report also found that lowering the corporate tax rate to 12.5 per cent in Northern Ireland would compensate for the negative effects of Brexit.

It concluded the most damaging post-Brexit outcome would be no deal, with a reduction of three per cent per year in FDI project numbers from 2019 to 2030, and a 3.6 per cent cut in FDI-related new jobs.

Meanwhile, Dublin-based organisation the Economic and Social Research Institute has warned that Brexit risks 80,000 Irish jobs.

It said the economic impact of Brexit on Ireland would be considerable in either a deal or no-deal scenario, with a cost to output this year of between €1.8bn and €7.5bn.

It estimated that 10 years after the UK leaving the EU with a deal, employment in Ireland would be some 45,000 lower than it would have been if the UK remained – and a disorderly no-deal would see that number almost double to around 80,000.

The Central Bank of Ireland has also warned a no-deal Brexit would cause a severe economic and financial blow to the Irish economy.

But it added that the south's ability to withstand a no-deal scenario is "much better" than it would have been a few years ago.

Central Bank chief Philip Lane said work to improve resilience over the past decade meant the shock of Brexit should not be "amplified by fragility" in the financial system.

Appearing before the Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, Mr Lane outlined the effects of Brexit, saying it would be uneven for the wider economy.

"Indigenous sectors, such as agrifood, (are) facing heightened risks of disruption to exports and supply chains," he added.

In the event of the UK leaving the EU with a deal, the Central Bank has predicted that domestic demand would expand by 4.3 per cent in 2019 and 3.9 per cent in 2020.

Unemployment is projected to average 4.9 per cent this year and 4.7 per cent next year.

"The improvement in the labour market means that we expect wages to increase by 3.4 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent next year," Mr Lane added.

He said the Central Bank has stepped up its work on mitigating the "cliff-edge" risks of a hard Brexit.

But he warned that Brexit is a permanent disruption to the Irish economy and poses challenges to industries, firms and regions across the country.

"We are all waiting to see what happens in Westminster," he added.