THERE is only a "50:50" chance that GCSE and A-level exams will go ahead next summer, according to the chairman of the Commons Education Select Committee.
Tory MP Robert Halfon has urged exams regulators to set an October deadline to decide whether to scrap papers in 2021 and again award grades on teachers' assessments.
Teaching unions have said it is important that there is no repeat of this year's chaos.
Controversial algorithms appeared to boost some schools' performance and led to thousands of pupils having their results downgraded.
Teacher-predicted grades were later honoured - leading to record pass rates.
Mr Halfon said the decision on next summer should be taken quickly to allow teacher assessments to start if necessary.
While he was talking specifically about exams set by boards in England, these are taken by thousands of pupils in the north.
It is expected that any change in England would be mirrored in Northern Ireland.
The north's CCEA board is already carrying out a consultation on proposed changes to exams in 2021, which include a reduction in the number of GCSE papers.
At present, there are no major reforms to A-levels being proposed by CCEA.
"It is 50:50 that exams go ahead next summer," Mr Halfon said.
"Schools, the Department for Education and Ofsted need to work out how much disruption there will be to pupils' learning in the coming year.
"Serious analysis needs to be done and then they need to make an announcement about exams within the next few weeks."
Labour has called for next year's A-level and GCSE exams to be pushed back to cope with the impact of the coronavirus crisis on pupils.
Shadow education secretary Kate Green said pupils who have lost up to six months of teaching time face "a mountain to climb" unless the timetable is changed.
Ms Green said exams due next May need to be delayed until June or July to facilitate extra teaching.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders' union NAHT, said: "What is most important is that we don't see a repeat of this year's chaos.
"Poor planning and last-minute changes by the government caused misery for many students. It would be indefensible if that happened again. Labour's suggestion of a delay to help with catch-up is worthy of serious consideration.
"A delay is not without its problems, a consequential delay to the publication of results will put pressure on higher education providers such as universities and colleges as well as employers. All this will need to be dealt with."
