Brexit

Data analysis suggests backing for second EU referendum throughout Britain

Boris Johnson

New analysis of polling figures shows that voters in the Britain, back a second EU referendum – including the constituencies of Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson – campaigners have claimed.

The research, released to PA by the Best for Britain campaign 100 days before the scheduled date of Brexit, suggested that the UK would vote Remain in a second referendum by 56 per cent to 44 per cent.

The 12-point lead for Remain is a higher margin than seen in any mainstream conventional poll since the 2016 EU referendum, won by Leave by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

The analysis also suggested that voters in Mrs May's Maidenhead constituency would prefer to stay in the EU than leave under her Brexit deal by a margin of 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

Best for Britain's research is based on modelling by data consultancy Focaldata using a method called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) on raw data from polling of more than 8,000 people between October 24 and November 6.

According to the campaign group, the analysis found majority support for what they term a People's Vote among supporters of every major party, residents of every region in Britain both men and women.

Respondents were asked whether they "support the British public having the final say on the Brexit deal".

The reported results omit those who said "don't know" or refused to answer, so that totals add up to 100 per cent.

Support for giving the public the final say was higher among women (69 per cent) than men (63 per cent) and stronger among younger voters (75 per cent for those aged 18 to 44) than older (69 per cent for 45 to 54 year olds, 61 per cent for 55 to 64 year olds and 51 per cent for those aged 65 and older).

In Mr Johnson's Uxbridge constituency, the analysis found 67 per cent backing a public vote, against 33 per cent opposing it.

In Mrs May's Maidenhead seat the split was 63 per cent – 37 per cent in favour and in Mr Corbyn's Islington North 78 per cent – 22 per cent.

Some 77 per cent of Labour supporters said they wanted the public to be given the final say, against 52 per cent of Conservatives.

And support for a public vote was highest in London (72 per cent) and Scotland (71 per cent), followed by the North East, North West and Wales (67 per cent), Yorkshire and the Humber (66 per cent), and the South East and West Midlands (64 per cent), and lowest in the East Midlands, East of England and South West (63 per cent).

The research found a majority in favour of Remain in every age group except the over-64s, who backed Leave by 56 per cent – 44 per cent.

Younger voters were the biggest Remain backers, with 64 per cent of 18 to 24 year olds, 66 per cent of the 25 to 34 group and 62 per cent of the 35 to 44s. Some 57 per cent of 45 t o 54 year olds and 52 per cent of 55 to 64 year olds said they would vote Remain in a re-run poll.

Support for Remain was highest in Scotland (70 per cent) and London (68 per cent), followed by the North West and Wales (56 per cent), the South East (54 per cent), South West (53 per cent) and the North-East and Yorkshire and Humber (52 per cent).

The East Midlands backed Leave by 51 per cent – 49 per cent, while the east of England and West Midlands said they would vote for EU withdrawal by less than half a percentage point over 50 per cent of those expressing a preference.

Eloise Todd, chief executive of Best for Britain said: "This shows that with 100 days to go till Brexit a record amount of the public do not want to leave.

"This should be a wake-up call for politicians. With Westminster deadlocked, I believe we must throw it back to the people and give them the final say on Brexit."

- Best for Britain's figures are based on modelling by Focaldata on raw data from a Populus poll of 8,154 people taken between October 24 and November 6.

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