News

Analysis concludes that Brexit will spell economic contraction for the UK

For the UK stock market, Brexit has been a bonus
For the UK stock market, Brexit has been a bonus For the UK stock market, Brexit has been a bonus

THE DUP has been accused of being ready to crash the north's economy after official figures revealed the scale of the impact of a no deal Brexit.

Analysis from Whitehall departments looking at the economic implications of the UK's withdrawal from the EU found that Theresa May's current plan could cut GDP by up to 3.9 per cent over the next 15 years.

But leaving without a deal was likely to deliver a near 10 per cent hit to GDP over the same period, confirming that the UK will be poorer in economic terms under any version of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU.

Chancellor Philip Hammond acknowledged that all possible Brexit options will make Britain economically poorer but he insisted that the withdrawal agreement signed off by EU leaders on Sunday would "minimise" the economic damage.

Northern Ireland is among the regions forecast to be hardest-hit by a no-deal Brexit or a Canada-style FTA, while the pain would be more evenly spread under the scenario closest to Mrs May's deal, with London worst hit.

Mr Hammond said the outcome of the Tory leader's preferred Brexit plan would be a "slightly smaller" economy over the next 15 years.

However, he said under any scenario, in a "purely economic sense", the UK will be worse off than if it stayed in the EU, as exiting will create "impediments to our trade".

DUP MP Ian Paisley said the chancellor's comments highlighted the need to seek a better deal.

He said there was "no enthusiasm" at Westminster for Mrs May's deal and that it was time to "bin the backstop".

"This process could commence now instead of waiting until after the House of Commons has its say and the government is then directed to think again," the North Antrim MP said.

"Everyone wants to see a successful outcome to this process but continuing to press ahead with the current deal will not achieve that – it’s time to grasp the nettle and seek a better way forward."

But Sinn Féin said the analysis confirmed its assessment that "there is no good Brexit".

Deputy leader Michelle O'Neill said under every possible scenario, the British economy was going to "sustain immense damage".

"That will be amplified and multiplied in the north of Ireland due to our particular circumstances, our reliance on north-south trade and the key role that Europe has played here," she said.

"Brexit is economic vandalism and it beggars belief that the DUP is still prepared to crash our economy in pursuit of a reckless unionist agenda."

The Mid Ulster MLA described Mrs May's withdrawal plan as the "least worst option available".

SDLP economy spokesman Daniel McCrossan said the conclusions of the analysis were "hardly surprising".

"It is wholly unrealistic to aspire to leave a trading block of 500 million, only to drift into uncertain trading territory, and not expect economic fallout," he said.

"The writing is on the wall and it is written in bold, Brexit is an unmitigated economic disaster."