Northern Ireland

All eyes on Mid Ulster on May 5

The Mid Ulster constituency is flanked to the east by Lough Neagh
The Mid Ulster constituency is flanked to the east by Lough Neagh The Mid Ulster constituency is flanked to the east by Lough Neagh

AS in previous assembly elections all eyes will be on Mid Ulster when the north goes to the polls on May 5.

With 14 candidates in the field, traditional battle-lines will be drawn.

A large constituency, Mid Ulster takes in an area from near the border running to the Sperrin Mountains in south Derry. Flanked by Lough Neagh to the east, the district includes a large chunks of east Tyrone and south Derry.

The majority nationalist district has been at the centre of Sinn Féin's electoral strategy since the late 1990s and was a platform for vice-president and Stormont Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness.

Party first time votes share in the 2017 election
Party first time votes share in the 2017 election Party first time votes share in the 2017 election

The sprawling constituency has also been good to his successor Michelle O'Neill, who has been an assembly member for the area since 2007.

With opinion polls strongly suggesting there may be an overall Sinn Féin majority at Stormont when counting is completed next month Ms O'Neill, and her party, will want to produce a strong personal showing.

They will also know that anything less than a return of the party's three MLAs on Ms O'Neill's home turf would taint any other success that may come their way.

Her running mates include Linda Dillon, a close colleague, who is viewed as a capable performer, and the party will expect her to retain her seat.

The party's sole south Derry based candidate is Emma Sheerin. She was co-opted to replace veteran republican Ian Milne in 2018 and faces her first election outing as a former MLA.

Party first time votes share in the 2017 election
Party first time votes share in the 2017 election Party first time votes share in the 2017 election

Also from south Derry is the SDLPs Patsy McGlone.

A long-standing assembly representative and deputy speaker, he is viewed as a solid constituency worker.

While Mr McGlone will take nothing for granted his party will be confident of returning his seat in Mid Ulster.

The potential impact of Aontú's Alixandra Halliday is difficult to gauge. The pro-life candidate will be expected to soak up some anti-abortion votes in the nationalist community.

Any gains made are most likely to be at the expense pro-abortion parties.

Whether those who hold pro-life views choose to prioritise the symbolism of a possible nationalist First Minister at Stormont over personal principle remains to be seen.

The battle for the fifth Mid Ulster seat is likely to take place within unionism.

The DUP's Keith Buchanan has been the party's Stormont representative since 2016, when he edged out colleague Ian McCrea.

The impact of the Northern Ireland Protocol is a talking point within unionism and the TUV's Glenn Moore will want to seize on loyalist and unionist discontent with the DUP.

Meta Graham will take up the fight for the UUP, but Mr Buchanan will be confident of seeing off both main challengers.

The inclusion of independent candidate Pat Haughey on the ballot will generate interest, particularly in the western side of the constituency.

Opposed to the mining of precious minerals, he comes from Creggan in Co Tyrone, which is close to Greencastle where Canadian firm Dalradian wants to develop a goldmine.

 Northern Ireland Assembly: How the state of the parties has changed. PA 
 Northern Ireland Assembly: How the state of the parties has changed. PA   Northern Ireland Assembly: How the state of the parties has changed. PA 

The controversy has divided opinion locally and may influence the thinking of some when they enter the polling booth next week.

Alliance candidate Claire Hackett will hope to better the return of 1,017 votes secured by Fay Watson in 2017.

While some predict the Alliance surge of recent years will be maintained this time around it is unlikely to significantly upset traditional voting trends in Mid Ulster.

The remainder of the field includes Workers Party representative Hugh Scullion, who polled 217 votes last time out.

A veteran of several election campaigns in Mid Ulster, Mr Scullion's expectations will be realistic.

Other hopefuls include Conor Rafferty of Resume, Sophia McFeeley of PBPA and the Green Party's Stefan Taylor.

Candidates:

Glenn Moore - TUV

Keith Buchanan - DUP

Meta Graham - UUP

Claire Hackett - Alliance

Stefan Taylor - Green

Sophia McFeely - PBPA

Hugh Scullion - WP

Patrick Haughey - Ind

Patsy McGlone - SDLP

Michelle O'Neill - SF

Linda Dillon - SF

Emma Sheerin - SF

Conor Rafferty - Resume

Alixandra Halliday - Aontú