Northern Ireland

Stormont poll post-mortem – How the parties fared?

DUP leader Arlene Foster MLA for Fermanagh and South Tyrone speaking at the Omagh count centre. Picture by Brian Lawless, Press Association<br />&nbsp;
DUP leader Arlene Foster MLA for Fermanagh and South Tyrone speaking at the Omagh count centre. Picture by Brian Lawless, Press Association
 
DUP leader Arlene Foster MLA for Fermanagh and South Tyrone speaking at the Omagh count centre. Picture by Brian Lawless, Press Association
 

Democratic Unionist Party

Seats 38 – no change

Share of first preference vote 29.2 per cent ; down -0.8 per cent

We'll never know if the DUP would have fared quite as well had Peter Robinson still been in charge but the party's promotion of Arlene Foster's personal credentials throughout the campaign suggests not. Speculation that the party would lose MLAs proved ill-founded and the loss of a seat in Lagan Valley notwithstanding – offset by a South Belfast gain– the DUP will be very pleased with how this election panned out. The loss of David McIlveen and Ian McCrea may ostensibly suggest a further shedding of DUP's Free Presbyterian skin but it would be premature to see that as any kind of shift away from its traditional conservatism, which has clearly been endorsed by the electorate. Ms Foster's authority on the assembly party is now unquestionable but social media sniping at republicans from Gregory Campbell over the weekend suggests potential problems could arise in future with the DUP's largely autonomous Westminster contingent.

Performance rating 9/10

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Sinn Féin

Seats 28 – -1

Share of first preference vote 24 per cent ; -2.9 per cent

Given how Sinn Féin chose to shoot itself in the foot with the high-risk move of Martin McGuinness into Foyle and the Fermanagh-South Tyrone selection debacle, the party will be reasonably relieved with the outcome of Thursday's poll. Its loss of seat in the north's most westerly constituency to SDLP will be seen as a symbolic setback rather than an indication of a broader trend but it will act as reminder that most of its past success have been down to strong discipline. More worryingly perhaps is the overall fall in the 'green bloc' vote and the clear discontent in West Belfast, where Sinn Féin has been outflanked on the left by People Before Profit, who will no doubt highlight the apparent contradiction between cutting corporation tax and helping societies' most vulnerable. As indicated through much of the campaign, we can expect increased co-operation between Sinn Féin and the DUP though their differences on same sex marriage and abortion could sour that relationship.

Performance rating 7/10

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Ulster Unionist Party

Seats 16 – no change

Share of first preference vote 12.6 per cent ; -0.7 per cent

Mike Nesbitt was overly optimistic in hoping to secure up to 19 seats in the assembly but he'll be quietly pleased that his party retained the same number of seats with which it began the last mandate. Some commentators expected the Ulster Unionists Party to capitalise on its two seat gain in last year's Westminster election yet by the same token the unionist pact that helped deliver one of those victories may have created difficulties in differentiating the party from the DUP this time around. Given that the UUP only left the executive last September, it remains difficult to gauge whether there's any advantage to be gained from shouting from the sidelines, so it will give plenty of consideration to its options before deciding whether to take a ministry or not. The UUP must also urgently address its falling support in Belfast, where it now has only one seat from 24.

Performance rating 6/10

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SDLP

Seats 12 - -2

Share of first preference vote 12 per cent ; - 2.2 per cent

It was the worst ever result for the SDLP but arguably it could have been much worse had Colum Eastwood not decided to run for the leadership last autumn. The loss of feisty Dolores Kelly and deputy leader Fearghal McKinney will hurt the party, but the new leader's generally strong performance during the campaign may well have saved nationalism's once dominant force from a total and potentially fatal humiliation at the polls.

A major concern for the SDLP will be why it is failing to gain ground on Sinn Féin in areas where the latter's record in government is proving unpopular. In a situation that conresponds in many ways with the DUP-UUP relationship, the SDLP struggles to convey how it differs from its larger rival. Limited in where it can manoeuvre in order to assert its identity, whether it decides to join the executive or not will likely prove key to the party's future fortunes.

Performance rating 5/10

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Alliance

Seats 8

Share of first preference vote 7 per cent ; -0.7 per cent

Many commentators believed this was Alliance's big opportunity to shine. Where once the party of the middle ground had been all but written off, recent years have seen David Ford's party enjoy a resurgence in support and profile, helped in no small part by its victimised role in the flag protests. Alliance has a reasonably good record in the executive, has not been afraid to call out the shortcomings of its partners in government and has been fortunate in no longer facing a challenge from ill-fated NI21, yet the lift all those factors were meant to elicit has failed to materialise. Some blame Mr Ford's headmaster demeanour, while others suggest it's down to the party's participation in the executive but while demographics indicate a growing middle ground, Alliance's electoral performance is failing to reflect that constituency's apparent expansion.

Performance Rating 6/10

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Others

Seats 6

Share of first preference vote 15.3 per cent

The headline grabber of Thursday's election was Gerry Carroll's poll-topping performance in West Belfast and his colleague Eamonn McCann's final stage election in Foyle. But while prominent, the People Before Profit pair's performance represents just a small change in the electoral landscape. Likewise, the Greens securing of a second seat to accompany that of leader Steven Agnew. However, for those who wish to see the end of the status quo, the rise of these two smaller parties and their eschewing of the usual constitutional baggage will be seen as a great advance. It looks likely the Greens and PFB will form an alliance on the Stormont benches in a bid to embarrass anybody wo pays mere lip service to left-leaning politics. Jim Allister's re-election will be welcomed by a media hungry for dissenting voices, while Claire Sudgen securing a seat is testament to her perseverance.

Performance rating 9/10