Northern Ireland

Can the UUP grab the Strangford seat lost after McNarry UKIP defection?

Newtownards is located in the largely rural constituency of Strangford. Picture by Cliff Donaldson
Newtownards is located in the largely rural constituency of Strangford. Picture by Cliff Donaldson Newtownards is located in the largely rural constituency of Strangford. Picture by Cliff Donaldson

MIKE Nesbitt's first assembly election test as Ulster Unionist leader will see his party aim to win back the seat in Strangford it lost following David McNarry's defection.

The former television broadcaster will be hoping his party's vote in the constituency is retained and they can secure two seats back in the halls of Stormont.

The largely rural constituency includes towns and villages such as Newtownards, Comber and Ballynahinch.

With an estimated population in 2014 of 90,000, it also takes in the Ards Peninsula and stretches as far as the fishing port of Portavogie.

It was one of the most geographically altered constituencies ahead of the last assembly election in 2011, losing five Castlereagh wards to east Belfast and two to south Belfast, but gaining three Down district wards from south Down.

The DUP took three seats in 2011 with the election of Jonathan Bell, Simon Hamilton and Michelle McIlveen - all government ministers. As well as the two seats won by the UUP, Kieran McCarthy of Alliance was elected.

Mr McCarthy is stepping down from the assembly and has passed the baton onto Kellie Armstrong in the hope of retaining the Alliance seat.

A councillor for North Down and Ards District Council, she will hope to use Mr McCarthy's strong base, especially in Kircubbin, as well as her own growing vote, to see her elected.

It is expected that all three outgoing DUP assembly members will be returned with the party also running a fourth candidate in a bid to secure another seat.

However, it is not thought likely the fourth candidate, Harry Harvey, will be elected.

Watch: Strangford

The UUP will be determined to win two seats in Strangford following the McNarry debacle, which saw him win the seat for the party but later defect to UKIP.

Mr McNarry is not running this time round, but has been working hard to build up a strong UKIP base in Strangford, which last time round saw the party secure just 601 votes in the constituency.

It is not expected that his successor, Stephen Crosby, will retain the seat for UKIP.

Mike Nesbitt is likely to retain his seat and will be hoping his running mate, Philip Smith - a former mayor of Ards - will join him at Stormont.

Other smaller unionist parties cannot be written off in Strangford either, with the TUV also now visible at local government level.

For the SDLP, and in particular its candidate Joe Boyle, they are hoping that this could be the assembly election where nationalists finally clinch a seat. A seat here has eluded them for years, with Mr Boyle getting closer each time. If he managed to cross the line, it would be more likely to be at the expense of Alliance but being eight per cent ahead of the SDLP last time round it would take a considerable shift for this to happen.

  • 2011 share of first preference vote

DUP: 48.8 per cent

UUP: 20.4 per cent

All: 14.4 per cent

SDLP: 8.5 per cent

Other Unionist: 4.8 per cent

SF: 3.0 per cent

  •  Seats won by party in 2011

DUP: 3

UUP: 2 * 1 later became UKIP after McNarry defection

All: 1

  • List of 2016 candidates

Kellie Armstrong (All)

Jonathan Bell (DUP)

Joe Boyle (SDLP)

Stephen Cooper (TUV)

Stephen Crosby (UKIP)

Georgia Grainger (Green)

Simon Hamilton (DUP)

Harry Harvey (DUP)

Dermot Kennedy (SF)

Rab McCartney (Ind)

Michelle McIlveen (DUP)

Bill McKendry (Conservatives)

Jimmy Menagh (Ind)

Mike Nesbitt (UUP)

Philip Smith (UUP)