OF all the constituencies across the north, South Belfast has the potential to throw up the most surprises on May 5.
This diverse constituency, which includes inner city working class areas, affluent leafy suburbs and the transient community around Queen's University, has a small unionist majority - despite returning a nationalist MP - but also a strong middle ground.
Alliance's Anna Lo topped the assembly poll in 2011, receiving nearly 2,000 votes more than the second placed candidate. However, as she was the only Alliance name on the ticket, the party returned just one MLA to Stormont.
Ms Lo isn't running this time around but Alliance has ensured it has two candidates on the ballot paper – academic Duncan Morrow and Paula Bradshaw, the latter who stood in the constituency in 2010's Westminster election on the ill-fated Ulster Unionist-Conservative ticket.
Ms Bradshaw is among four former Ulster Unionists contesting South Belfast, though of the remaining three – John Hiddleston (TUV), Billy Dickson (South Belfast Unionists) and UKIP's Bob Stoker – none is realistically expected to win a seat but the latter could attract a significant number given his previous profile as lord mayor.
Video: South Belfast
There are no less than eight candidates standing in the constituency under an explicitly 'unionist' banner, however, unionists will effectively be battling for two, or at the most, three seats. This contest will be between four candidates – Christopher Stalford and Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP, Rodney McCune of the UUP and independent Ruth Patterson.
Ms Patterson is a former DUP member who alongside Jimmy Spratt helped the party secure the largest share of the vote – almost 25 per cent – in 2011. She missed out on the last seat to the SDLP's Conall McDevitt but nonetheless felt this performance warranted her being co-opted into the assembly when Mr Spratt stood down last year for health reasons.
It was DUP headquarters' decision to choose Ms Little-Pengelly for the assembly and Ms Patterson's subsequent criticism of the move which led to her expulsion. As an independent, she now hopes to exact revenge on the DUP by taking the seat, though despite enlisting the help of high-profile loyalist Jamie Bryson, Ms Patterson remains an outsider.
This side contest coupled with the general shredding of unionist vote could very likely cost the DUP a second seat though it is unlikely to impact on the Ulster Unionists' performance to the same degree.
Sinn Féin's Máirtín Ó Muilleoir is expected to take a seat comfortably, as is one of the two SDLP candidates, Claire Hanna and former UTV journalist Fearghal McKinney.
Coming from opposing 'wings' of the party, the two SDLP candidates have done well to disguise their differences, however, there remains a tense rivalry between the two camps. Holding both the parties seats in the constituency will require strong co-operation and good vote management.
Anybody who fancies an outside bet could do worse than have a flutter on Green candidate Clare Bailey, who may yet benefit from party leader Steven Agnew's strong Stormont performance.
- 2011 share of first preference vote:
DUP: 24.3 per cent
SDLP: 23.9 per cent
All: 19.8 per cent
UUP: 13.6 per cent
SF: 12.5 per cent
Green: 2.8 per cent
People Before Profit: 1.3 per cent
Socialist: 0.7 per cent
UKIP: 0.7 per cent
WP: 0.4 per cent
Pro-Capitalism: 0.1 per cent
- Seats won by party in 2011:
SDLP: 2 seats
DUP: 1 seat
All: 1 seat
UUP: 1 seat
SF: 1 seat
- List of 2016 candidates:
Brigitte Anton (Northern Ireland Labour Representation Committee)
Clare Bailey (Green)
Paula Bradshaw (All)
Seán Burns (Ind)
William Dickson (Ind)
Claire Hanna (SDLP)
John Hiddleston (TUV)
Lily Kerr (WP)
Ben Manton NI (Cons)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP)
Duncan Morrow (All)
Rodney McCune (UUP)
Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF)
Ruth Patterson (Ind)
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP)
Ian Shanks (PUP)
Christopher Stalford (DUP)
Bob Stoker (UKIP)
