Northern Ireland

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: Can SDLP capitalise on SF selection shortcomings?

St Micheal's and St Macartin's churches in Enniskillen, reflected in the Erne. Pictured by Ann McManus
St Micheal's and St Macartin's churches in Enniskillen, reflected in the Erne. Pictured by Ann McManus St Micheal's and St Macartin's churches in Enniskillen, reflected in the Erne. Pictured by Ann McManus

THE north's most westerly constituency has provided its fair share of election drama over the years and May 5 could see this theme continue.

In last year's Westminster election it took a unionist pact to unseat Sinn Féin's Michelle Gildernew in an area that has an overall nationalist majority, albeit a narrow one.

The former Stormont agriculture minister's party could have been expected to repeat its 2011 performance this year and return three MLAs to Stormont.

However, Sinn Féin has been uncharacteristically slipshod in its handling of candidate selection in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Video: Fermanagh South Tyrone

At its first selection convention before Christmas, delegates chose Ms Gildernew alongside sitting MLA Sean Lynch and councillor John Feeley.

That meant there was no place on the ticket for Phil Flanagan, who while controversial, ranks as one of Sinn Féin's more popular assembly members.

Sinn Féin headquarters then ordered a re-run of the convention after an apparent anomaly between the number of delegates and votes cast.

The second vote duly saw Mr Flanagan selected alongside Mr Lynch and Mr Feeley, but ousted one of the party's most high-profile female representatives in favour of three men, all of them Fermanagh-based rather than spread across the constituency.

Realising the difficulty this posed, the party's ard chomhairle ordered an additional convention that enabled Michelle Gildernew's name to be added.

While this may satisfy the candidates and their respective factions, the election could turn out to be a relative disaster for Sinn Féin.

Whether the SDLP can exploit its opponent’s organisational shortcomings, which many say are fuelled by internal local rivalries, is a moot point.

The SDLP lost the seat Tommy Gallagher had held for some 13 years by a narrow margin in 2011.

This time around, the party believes Colum Eastwood’s fresh leadership could provide the necessary lift to secure a seat for Newtownbutler councillor and businessman Richie McPhillips, who the party regard as a strong candidate.

If this ‘dream scenario’ does come to pass, it’ll be one of the election’s big stories, pointing to a potential SDLP resurgence and Sinn Féin fallibility.

Effectively the only certs in Fermanagh and South Tyrone are the DUP running pair of First Minister Arlene Foster and Lord Maurice Morrow, both Stormont stalwarts who help this rural constituency punch above its weight.

The DUP leader’s former comrades in the Ulster Unionists have had their own share of election selection ordeals in recent years, which may explain why they have again decided to run two candidates, though it could be argued that Tom Elliott’s profile as an MP will help its Stormont hopefuls - Alastair Patterson, who was co-opted as an MLA earlier this year, and Rosemary Barton.

The TUV and other smaller parties have never threatened to break through in this conservative constituency, where even Alliance struggles to get 1,000 votes.

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  • 2011 share of first preference vote:

SF: 40.3 per cent

DUP: 24.4 per cent

UUP: 19.3 per cent

SDLP: 9.6 per cent

TUV: 2.6 per cent

Ind: 2.1 per cent

All: 1.8 per cent

  • Seats won by party in 2011:

SF: 3 seats

DUP: 2 seats

UUP: 1 seat

  • List of 2016 candidates:

Rosemary Barton (UUP)

Kerri Blyberg (All)

Donald Crawford (TUV)

John Feely (Sinn Féin)

Phil Flanagan (Sinn Féin)

Arlene Foster (DUP)

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin)

Damien Harris (NI Labour Representation Committee)

Tanya Jones (Green)

Sean Lynch (Sinn Féin)

Richie McPhilips (SDLP)

Maurice Morrow (DUP)

Alastair Patterson (UUP)