Opinion

Analysis: Arlene Foster unable to keep the DUP's 'Ulstras' in check

Arlene Foster has recently signalled a more pragmatic approach to the protocol. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire
Arlene Foster has recently signalled a more pragmatic approach to the protocol. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire Arlene Foster has recently signalled a more pragmatic approach to the protocol. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire

FIVE years ago when Arlene Foster assumed the DUP leadership, it was speculated that the north could be entering a new political era.

A former Ulster Unionist and a member of the Church of Ireland, she was seen as representing a break with religious fundamentalism and the DUP’s politics of protest – a voice of relative moderation for a new generation.

Circumstances conspired to ensure that politics has remained as entrenched as ever, while Mrs Foster’s reputation is tarnished, much of it of her own doing in relation to previous oversight of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI).

During Stormont’s three-year hiatus she was the leader without office, a frustrated spectator to the power games at Westminster, who appeared to be living on borrowed time.

Yet she has proved resilient, the damp squib that was Sir Patrick Coghlin’s RHI inquiry report helping her rehabilitation.

During the past 10 months, while minds have been almost solely focused on combatting coronavirus, it’s fair to say that Mrs Foster’s record in office has been satisfactory.

In the instances where she has dithered and been less effective, her performance has more often than not been undermined by the ‘Ulstras' within her own party.

In her role as first minister, she has pressed home the public health message only for it to be sabotaged by her own MPs and on occasions from the Stormont benches, whether it’s Jonathan Buckley and Ian Paisley criticising Covid-related restrictions or Sammy Wilson consistently refusing to wear a face covering.

We can only speculate whether she fully supported the cross-community veto that was deployed in November or if she felt forced to fall into line with the party’s powerful libertarian faction. Her determination to follow the wider consensus since suggests she may have had doubts at the time.

Likewise, in relation to Brexit and the protocol, she has lately sought to be pragmatic, identifying the potential advantages rather than focusing on the self-inflicted drawbacks, which fail to project blame and only further highlight her party’s countless missteps.

It’s possible this moderation is down to Mrs Foster simultaneously straddling two roles – that of first minister and DUP leader – or that she belatedly recognises the need to change tack.

There is no doubt the DUP is in a mess at the moment and is struggling to find its way in a political landscape that is transforming much faster than it would like.

DUP MPs in what appear to be safe seats may feel unconstrained in their public outbursts but in the places where MLAs’ seats are less secure, an uncompromising message that echoes of a bygone era has diminishing returns.

While strategising has never been the DUP’s forte, it’s possible Mrs Foster can now see beyond short-termism but is so far powerless to bring her party with her.