Opinion

John Manley: Most likely outcome on paper is Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the Greens to coalesce with rotating taoiseach

Mary Lou McDonald has signalled her desire to lead a Sinn Féin-Rainbow coalition. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire
Mary Lou McDonald has signalled her desire to lead a Sinn Féin-Rainbow coalition. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire Mary Lou McDonald has signalled her desire to lead a Sinn Féin-Rainbow coalition. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire

AS we all know Sinn Féin didn't anticipate its huge surge at the polls and ending up all but neck-and-neck with Fianna Fáil, the party that historically has been top dog in southern politics.

It's a bit ironic that the party that has been telling us recently of the need to plan has been caught on the hop.

But then nobody saw it coming – certainly not Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who unlike Sinn Féin have both been placed on the back foot.

Micheál Martin's party may have emerged with the most seats – only just – but this was its second worst electoral performance ever.

The leader's future is still up in the air, his hand weakened by a lack of consistency on who he'd share power with.

So now the process of forming the next government gets underway. Mary Lou McDonald has signalled her desire to lead a Sinn Féin-Rainbow coalition but this is regarded not just as numerically challenging but difficult in terms of mustering disparate personalities and policy objectives.

The most likely outcome on paper is for Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the Greens to coalesce with a rotating taoiseach.

That scenario is unpalatable to some within Fianna Fáil's ranks but acceptable to others, a situation that won't help efforts to form a government.

The badly bruised Fine Gael seems happy to accept its lot and enter a period of opposition where it will regroup and potentially ditch a leader who a matter of months ago was being widely fêted for his role in the Brexit negotiations.

One suspects that from the three parties who emerged with the most seats, it is Micheál Martin's that least wants to return to the polls immediately.

Sinn Féin on the other hand would likely relish the opportunity to consolidate the gains it made at the weekend.

The process proper of forming a government isn't expected to get serious until after February 20 when the Dáil reconvenes.

Until then, expect shadow boxing and hard rhetoric but few clear red lines. It's a complicated picture with no quick fix solution.

Meanwhile, the drama south of the border has taken the focus off Stormont, where the restored institutions continue to trundle along unspectacularly, the momentum from last month's New Decade, New Approach deal slowly dissipating.

Sinn Féin's sudden rise in the Republic will no doubt unnerve many unionists, and even some nationalists, but it will also raise the southern public's expectations of a party whose record in the Stormont government has at best been mediocre.

The hubris may evaporate with the realisation that with power comes responsibility and some tough decisions but for now let's revel in the fact that politics can still deliver big surprises.