Opinion

ANALYSIS: Stormont talks represent Arlene Foster's acid test

Arlene Foster's political future rests on the outcome of the current talks. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire
Arlene Foster's political future rests on the outcome of the current talks. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire Arlene Foster's political future rests on the outcome of the current talks. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA Wire

LAST month marked four years since Arlene Foster became leader of the DUP. By any standard, it has been a disappointing and unproductive time in office. The Fermanagh-South Tyrone MLA took the reins from Peter Robinson in a relatively stable period in Stormont's history, accompanied by a degree of optimism that politics would move forward. But within little over a year the institutions had collapsed, with the finger of blame firmly pointed at Mrs Foster due to her association with the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal.

In the period since Martin McGuinness resigned as deputy first minster, the DUP leader has been little more than a bit player. The centre of gravity shifted to Westminster, where her party gained unprecedented power through the confidence and supply deal with the Tories, while Stormont lay idle and Mrs Foster was the leader without office, distracted by RHI and a series of negotiations that came to nothing.

Her demise has been predicted before but there's a sense this time that it's make or break for Arlene.

There's a fork in the road ahead and potentially either route could prove fatal to her leadership.

On one hand, there's the chance to restore the institutions, a move that would be seen outside the party as largely positive. However, like the February 2018 deal that never got over the line, the terms of any fresh agreement could prove unpalatable to many within the DUP and, just as crucially, the Orange Order. The DUP and unionism generally has backed itself into a corner over an Irish language act, so any compromise will inevitably leave its leader open to allegations of Lundyism. Delivering a deal that somehow satisfies all sides will demand leadership skills which Mrs Foster has yet to display in any abundance. As Brexit and recent elections have indicated, there is potential for Northern Ireland's political landscape to transform relatively quickly and therefore its politicians should be capable of responding to change without alienating their support base – arguably that's exactly what the Sinn Féin leadership did in the decade up to St Andrews.

The alternative for Mrs Foster is to walk away from a deal – again. The consequences this time would be an election, coming just weeks after the DUP lost more than 16 per cent of its total votes compared to 2017. Her resolve may prove a vote winner with some hardliners but it's equally possible that the electorate would punish DUP obstinance, most likely leading to a heave against the leader.

The implications that rest on the outcome of the current talks goes a long way to explaining the DUP's hesitance in signing up to what's on offer.

And all this plays out ahead of the forthcoming publication of Sir Patrick Coghlin's report into RHI. The DUP is playing down the damage the report will do to Mrs Foster, insisting it won't mirror the public anger aimed at the former first minister. She'll never manage to shake off the negative association with Stormont's biggest ever scandal but by demonstrating an as yet unseen ability to move unionism into a new era of tolerance and co-operation, Mrs Foster may well salvage a political career that currently rests on a knife-edge.