Opinion

Pre-Christmas poll could deliver many surprises

The outcome in a handful of the north's 18 constituencies is not a foregone conclusion
The outcome in a handful of the north's 18 constituencies is not a foregone conclusion The outcome in a handful of the north's 18 constituencies is not a foregone conclusion

A December Westminster election looks set to deliver some close-run contests that may test traditional allegiances. Political Correspondent John Manley reports.

IN what could arguably be characterised as politically more stable times, the outcome of elections in Northern Ireland was as close to a certainty as you could get.

But Brexit in particular alongside social issues like abortion, same-sex marriage and climate change have disrupted the region's once-rigid political allegiances. The December 2019 Westminster election may therefore be remembered not just for its odd timing weeks before Christmas but for overturning previous certainties and seeing a few incumbents jettisoned.

That said, the sense of flux in politics shouldn't be overstated, as results in the majority of the north's 18 constituencies are likely to be a foregone conclusion. However, there are a handful of seats where there's plenty to play for.

All the talk over the coming weeks will be about pacts – unionist pacts, nationalist pacts, tacit pacts, progressive pacts and pro-Remain coalitions. Some may come to fruition, while none of the above may materialise.

After a flurry of speculation several weeks ago about the north's pro-Remain parties running a single candidate in certain constituencies, things have gone quiet. Primarily, it appears that Alliance's aversion to any sort of cross-party co-operation has scuppered the plans for a single anti-Brexit candidate in South Belfast, where if the planets are aligned, the SDLP's Claire Hanna is ideally positioned to overturn DUP eurosceptic Emma Little-Pengelly's majority of just under 2,000. Sinn Féin and the Greens were receptive to the idea to a lesser and greater degree, but once Alliance ruled itself out, SDLP enthusiasm waned amid fears it would be accused of encouraging a 'sectarian headcount', even though the basis of co-operation is Brexit and its consequences.

Speculation of Sinn Féin unilaterally stepping aside in South Belfast continues, where rumours that an increasingly election-weary Máirtín Ó Muilleoir would follow the example of Alex Maskey in 2010. The party would hope that its gesture would then be reciprocated in North Belfast, where in 2017 Sinn Féin's Belfast lord mayor John Finucane came within 2,081 votes of unseating DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds.

The SDLP ran 'paper' candidate Martin McAuley in that election, ahead of deputy leader Nichola Mallon, in what was seen as a face-saving move that enabled the party to avoid allegations of entering pacts with Sinn Féin. The SDLP effectively holds the balance in North Belfast, so what it chooses to do this time around will be crucial in deciding the fate of Mr Dodds. The Ulster Unionists too can influence the outcome in North Belfast, where the party has stepped aside in the past two Westminster elections. Commentators are already sceptical about leader-in-waiting Steve Aiken's pledge to run candidates in all 18 constituencies. Watch this space.

The most mouth-watering intra-nationalist contest of the forthcoming election will be in Foyle, where in 2017 Sinn Féin wrestled the seat from the SDLP by a slim majority of just 169.

The defeated candidate on that occasion, former SDLP leader Mark Durkan, has since run as a Fine Gael European Parliament candidate and is therefore highly unlikely to contest his home city seat in a Westminster election again. Fellow Derryman and successor Colum Eastwood is by far his party's best candidate in Foyle though this would mean abandoning the unwritten rule that says the SDLP cannot be led from Westminster, a concession made easier by the fact that Stormont is unlikely to return any time soon. Sinn Féin has already selected incumbent Elisha McCallion to contest the seat.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone is traditionally the north's closest run constituency, swinging four times between the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Féin in little over 20 years. In the past three Westminster elections, the majority has never been greater than 1,000 and in 2010 was secured by Sinn Féin's Michelle Gildernew, the sitting MP, by just four votes. The DUP stands aside in leader Arlene Foster's home constituency, leaving Tom Elliott as the sole unionist candidate. The former UUP leader looks likely to contest the seat again.

Less tantalising, but worth watching is East Belfast, where Alliance will be hoping its recent electoral surge can translate into the success that saw leader Naomi Long take the seat from her DUP counterpart Peter Robinson in 2010. Depending on whether pro-Remain Lady Sylvia Hermon chooses to defend her seat, North Down will also be a notable contest given that the predominantly unionist seat voted to stay in the EU, so any backlash against the DUP will likely be most evident here.