Opinion

Analysis: What will the EU do in Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit?

Ryan McAleer
Ryan McAleer Ryan McAleer

WHAT will the EU do in Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit?

It’s an uncomfortable question for many in Dublin, but speak to trade officials in Brussels and its clear, checks will be needed in a crash out scenario.

For now, the EU position is Ireland’s position. The Good Friday Agreement and the all-island economy must be protected.

But number three on that list, could soon become number one in a no-deal situation.

For the EU, the single market is sacred. The idea that an open border could exist in Ireland if the UK crashes out, appears at best fanciful.

Dyed in the wool trade aficionados in Brussels speak of the need to protect the single market by enforcing the border somewhere. If it can't be enforced in the Irish Sea, then surely the options are limited?

Should the north be pulled out of the EU alongside Britain without a deal, the sanctity of the Good Friday Agreement, peace process and the all-island economy will inevitably slip below the single market on the EU priority list.

EU sources confirmed the inevitable yesterday: Alongside Dublin, it is exploring what checks could be put in place to protect things like food standards if the worst case scenario is realized.

What is being drafted up for cross-border milk and sheep producers is unclear, because neither the European Commission or the Irish Government talk openly about it.

Perhaps understandably, as it’s seen as a potential green light for Boris’ Brexiteer brigade that the backstop is done.

This week in Brussels, officials and MEPs across the EU spoke of the unity across the 27 Member States, that they remain steadfast behind the Republic.

But there’s a question mark over what happens to that European harmony in a no-deal Brexit?

Former Fine Gael TD Phil Hogan is set to be officially named as the EU’s next Trade Commissioner. He will be charged with leading the EU side in post-Brexit talks with the UK.

While his Irish identity will no doubt come in handy when he heads to Washington to ease the rift with Trump on behalf of the EU, it could soon take a back seat to his European brief in a no-deal.

In November 2018, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar responded to a letter signed by 1,000 civic nationalists by stating that the interests of Irish citizens in Northern Ireland "are a priority in the ongoing Brexit negotiations".

The Taoiseach and Tanaiste Simon Coveney’s stance on the border has attracted the ire of unionists, who have accused them of intransigence and wrapping themselves in the green flag.

But what colour will the flag be if the doomsday scenario is realised? And will the same pair be able to wear both green and the flag of Europe without a cost politically?