Opinion

ANALYSIS: Militant republicanism thrives in political instability

Deputy Chief Constable Stephen Martin talks to the media after a bombing in Fermanagh. Picture by Hugh Russell.
Deputy Chief Constable Stephen Martin talks to the media after a bombing in Fermanagh. Picture by Hugh Russell. Deputy Chief Constable Stephen Martin talks to the media after a bombing in Fermanagh. Picture by Hugh Russell.

WHILE the warning signs have been there for some time, there remains a complacency in relation to the rise of dissident republican groupings who are fully exploiting the current political instability.

The Continuity IRA, who had been all but dormant since an intelligence led purge on the organisation back in 2014, are regrouping and have recruited younger, more militant members.

Both the New IRA and the CIRA have soaked up seasoned members of Oglaigh n hEireann (ONH) who declared a ceasefire last year.

Those unhappy with the ceasefire announcement, and who retained access to ONH weapons and members with bomb making capabilities have a cross border strength and support network that could prove devastatingly destabilising in the event of a no deal Brexit.

That the booby trap bomb that exploded in Fermanagh was almost identical in method and make up to a bomb discovered in Craigavon in July points to CIRA involvement.

The geographical spread of the recent attacks will again give cause for concern that once chaotic republican factions are becoming more organised and expanding their reach.

Decreasing nationalist confidence in policing is playing into the hands of those who see Brexit and the lack of devolved institutions and political unrest as a perfect time to promote a violent republican reaction, to bring back 'armed struggle' in real terms.

It is unusual for a senior police officer to publicly recognise the link between increased violence and political instability.

However, Deputy Chief Constable Stephen Martin warned yesterday "I think we now need action, what we need is a society led by our politicians ... progress made is slipping back".

That slip back has been slow and gradual, it has been sparked by not one major event but by numerous failings that are building into one large and concerning crisis.

While militant republicanism remains small in numbers that does not mean that the threat they pose should be dismissed.

A minority can quite easily make life difficult and even intolerable for the majority, that has been the case in the past and unless action is taken to halt this current crisis that could well be the case in the future.