Opinion

ANALYSIS: A new Tory leader will only bring greater instability and uncertainty

Theresa May looks set to oversee a disastrous European election for the Tories. Picture by House of Commons/PA Wire
Theresa May looks set to oversee a disastrous European election for the Tories. Picture by House of Commons/PA Wire Theresa May looks set to oversee a disastrous European election for the Tories. Picture by House of Commons/PA Wire

OUR instincts tell us that the departure of any Tory leader is a good thing. If you're old enough to remember Margaret Thatcher leaving Downing Street, I'm sure you'll also recall that accompanying sense of glee as we bid goodbye to a woman whose preceding decade in power had become synonymous with misery and division. Her successor was blander and less vilified but when John Major was ousted by 1997's Labour landslide there was clear sense that things were about to get better.

But circumstances are somewhat different now. In recent months we've witnessed an unlikely alignment between Theresa May and people in Northern Ireland, including business groups and the farming lobby, who wish to retain ties with Europe. Her original withdrawal agreement, complete with the backstop, was regarded as the best of what was available. The majority in the region would prefer to remain firmly within the EU but if that wasn't an option then we'd take the guarantee that there would still be a free-flowing border in the event of no viable alternative.

However, the British prime minister's failure to sell the deal to her party colleagues or to concede enough to bring Labour on board means she has finally run out of road. Couple this with an expectation that the Conservatives' performance in yesterday's European election will rank among its worst ever and Mrs May's position is untenable. She has already pledged to leave but circumstances are accelerating her towards the exit. It's even possible that by the time you're reading this her resignation has been tendered.

So where does Theresa May's departure leave us? It's fair to say the past couple of years have been characterised by increased instability and uncertainty. If either of the main Tory leadership contenders – Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab – are victorious we can expect this situation to only intensify, with the DUP and their totally skewed representation of the north's interests being indulged in order to safeguard power. No 10's new resident would also help oversee a fresh confidence and supply deal with Arlene Foster's party and while there will be public assurances that the DUP is securing 'the best for Northern Ireland', privately a greater commitment to Brexit without a backstop will be sought.

The failure to satisfactorily resolve Brexit has ingrained the mutual suspicion between the DUP and Sinn Féin and perpetuated Stormont's dormancy. There's already a low expectation of a speedy restoration of the devolved institutions and a new Tory leader is unlikely to introduce any fresh dynamism into the current process.

Like her recent predecessors, Mrs May has had little direct influence on regional politics though she has been responsible for the failed experiment that is Karen Bradley, a secretary of state that has arguably done more to demonstrate her party's complete detachment from reality in the north than any of her forerunners. One upside to a change of guard in Downing Street may be Mrs Bradley's sacking but then there's always been a suspicion that she is in the job merely to spite the recalcitrant natives, so her removal under a new Tory leader isn't necessarily a given.

Political commentators are often criticised for their pessimistic take on events but it's difficult to be upbeat about the consequences of a hard Brexiteer becoming British prime minister. The only hope is that whoever takes the Tory reins quickly realises that the reason Mrs May was so dogged in her desire to ratify the withdrawal agreement is because the alternative is such an unmitigated disaster.

Unless that penny drops, things can only get worse.