Opinion

ANALYSIS: Local government election results won't change attitudes at talks table

The DUP and Sinn Féin took almost half the 462 council seats. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire
The DUP and Sinn Féin took almost half the 462 council seats. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire The DUP and Sinn Féin took almost half the 462 council seats. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire

GIVEN the usual rigidity of Northern Ireland political allegiances, the surge enjoyed by the centrist Alliance, and the Greens and People Before Profit on the left, represents a definite, albeit minor, shift in the political landscape.

The flux that politics finds itself in the world over will inevitably find its way into the north's 11 council chambers but so far any transformation can only be characterised as a slow evolution rather than a revolution.

The outcome of last Thursday's poll shows that that the DUP and Sinn Féin still command the greatest level of support, securing almost half the 462 local government seats up for renewal.

Both of the big two parties faltered in one way or another – the DUP secured the largest share of first preference votes (24.1 per cent) but saw its tally of councillors fall, while Sinn Féin's vote dipped, apparently migrating to smaller rivals.

Council elections 2019: full results

Overall, however, neither will be unduly worried as the status quo seems set to prevail for the time being.

Therefore, there's nothing to suggest that the outcome of the local government elections will have any great influence on the latest round of negotiations aimed at restoring devolution, which at the behest of the two governments begin tomorrow.

Public pressure, rather than any increased optimism over a successful conclusion to the talks, is what has dictated the timing of this particular process, sandwiched as it is between two elections, and although the intentions are genuine, the circumstances aren't especially favourable.

Arlene Foster can point to her party's performance and ask why she needs to compromise when the electorate has clearly endorsed her stance.

Sinn Féin too, despite a few small hiccups, is emboldened; its representatives highlighting how the parties that enjoyed a lift at the polls last week are almost universally supportive of what it terms the 'rights agenda'.

Northern Ireland politics has always been polarised but this election result perhaps shows that the cleavage is shifting, and increasingly that brand of political unionism that celebrates Orange culture and, up until the election of its first openly gay councillor often appeared to wallow in intolerance of the LGBT+ community, is becoming more isolated from the rest of the field.

Electorally, that may well work for the DUP in the short-term as it presents itself as the only true unionist party.

In the longer term, however, it's a strategy that will only reinforce division rather encourage compromise.

The forthcoming European election is likely to confirm unionism's entrenchment while confirming the ascendancy of more progressive politics, whether it be those of Colum Eastwood or Naomi Long.

Meanwhile, Brexit, RHI and the DUP's confidence and supply deal with the Tories are the toxic mix conspiring to undermine a talks process that has been convened prematurely

Add a strong mandate from last week's elections and there's little reason to believe a breakthrough is coming any time soon.