Opinion

Analysis: Big issues to trump local concerns in council elections

Ahead of this week's local government elections, political correspondent John Manley assesses whether voting patterns will be any different from five years ago

Turnout at the 2014 election was just over 51 per cent
Turnout at the 2014 election was just over 51 per cent Turnout at the 2014 election was just over 51 per cent

ALL but three of the north's 11 councils have approved inflation-busting rates hikes in recent weeks, while some local authorities send 10 times the amount of rubbish to landfill than their neighbours.

These are the two major issues over which councils have control but it's unlikely they'll be to the fore in people's minds as they enter the polling booth on Thursday.

Instead, it will be the constitutional issue, identity politics and Brexit that are expected to dictate voting preferences.

The pattern of voting in previous local government elections has broadly reflected the outcome of corresponding polls for Stormont and Westminster, and there's nothing to suggest that this time will be any different.

Turnout in the 2014 local government elections, which coincided with elections to the European Parliament, was just over 51 per cent of the eligible electorate.

Assuming voter numbers benefited from two polls on the one day, don't be surprised if turnout dips below the halfway mark this time around.

At the last council election, which came in the aftermath of the loyalist flag protests, Sinn Féin's popular vote (24.1 per cent) outstripped that of the DUP (23.1 per cent) but the latter secured 130 seats compared to the former's 105.

The DUP would no doubt attribute its greater tally of councillors to better vote management, though arguably it has more to do with a historical tendency for better cross-party transfers within unionism.

While there are reports of growing levels of dissatisfaction with the absence of devolution, voters are more likely to blame traditional opponents for the impasse rather than their favoured party.

Moreover, the 'Big Two' parties' predicaments in relation to Stormont don't accurately correspond – republicans maintain that they brought down the institutions in response to a groundswell among their electorate, while the DUP has argued for their restoration without preconditions.

It's also worth bearing in mind that this will be the DUP's first electoral test after the embarrassment of Sir Patrick Coghlin's forensic RHI inquiry, but much of that is now old news and the party has sought to counter any negative publicity by accentuating the benefits accrued through the confidence and supply deal with the Tories.

Neither party seems likely to face any backlash over Brexit, with the DUP's calls for the implementation of the 2016 referendum result resonating among its pro-Leave constituency.

It will be interesting to see, however, if the business and farming organisations' criticism of the DUP's tactics in regard to the backstop finds any significant expression at the polls.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin is buoyed by the general emboldenment of nationalism that Brexit has inadvertently precipitated, and its campaign has focused on the issue accordingly.

Nationalism generally is in a much stronger place than it was five years ago, when apathy was widespread and an acceptance of the status quo was becoming ingrained.

Like their counterparts in Scotland, Irish nationalists regard the imposition of the EU referendum result against the regional majority's will as the necessary dynamic shift that could deliver their ultimate goal.

Sinn Féin is best placed to exploit this, while the SDLP had hoped this election would provide the opportunity to highlight its recently formalised cross-border ties with Fianna Fáil.

However, the disaffection of Claire Hanna, coupled with Mark Durkan's extraordinary decision to run for Fine Gael in Dublin, have proved setbacks as it seeks to improve on its tally of 66 seats.

The Ulster Unionists performed surprisingly well in 2014, taking 88 seats under Mike Nesbitt's leadership.

It proved something of a false dawn, however, and in the time since the party that once dominated Northern Ireland politics has become a mere shadow of its former self, claiming to represent a new brand of unionism but too often aping the DUP.

In the last council election Alliance was contesting the middle ground with the fledgling NI21, which had imploded amid much acrimony just 48 hours before the polls opened.

For a party that was being written off in the mid-noughties, Alliance has fared well in the near-decade since Naomi Long snatched the East Belfast Westminster seat from Peter Robinson.

However, it continues to have difficulties getting councillors elected west of the Bann.

Of the smaller parties, the Greens are hoping to continue their slow but steady growth, as will People Before Profit, while both the TUV and PUP will have difficulty matching their 2014 tally of 13 and four seats respectively.