Opinion

Analysis: The public can change its mind too, you know

It's not just this week's Cheltenham Festival where the odds have been fluctuating. The odds on a second EU referendum have plunged to 2/1 with some bookmakers
It's not just this week's Cheltenham Festival where the odds have been fluctuating. The odds on a second EU referendum have plunged to 2/1 with some bookmakers It's not just this week's Cheltenham Festival where the odds have been fluctuating. The odds on a second EU referendum have plunged to 2/1 with some bookmakers

WHETHER you're a Leaver or a Remainder, or have simply evolved into a BOB (bored of the whole thing - though please tell me you don't need me to explain that acronym?), its unlikely you're overly-enamoured with the calibre of any of our politicians right now.

To put it crudely, many of the MPs whose decisions are impacting all our daily lives at the moment probably couldn't find their own backsides with a torch and a map. A dereliction of duty springs to mind . . .

Yesterday the British chancellor warned that we're likely to face "significant disruption" if the UK crashes out of the European Union without a deal.

That'll have been poo-pooed, of course, by the DUP (do they actually own maps or torches?).

In real life, outside the Westminster bubble, most businesses here simply get on with it, although not all are surviving (the latest example is the Balmoral Hotel in Warrenpoint, not a million miles from the border, which admitted defeat yesterday when it ceased trading).

Amidst the uncertainty, the government published a contingency plan for the border in a no-deal scenario, pledging no checks nor controls, and that goods entering the northern market from the Republic won't face tariffs (transversely, tariffs will be payable on goods moving from the EU into the rest of the UK via Northern Ireland under a schedule of rates).

That in itself raises questions about the north's competitiveness and whether or not businesses in the Republic will make more money trading directly with England, Scotland and Wales.

Effectively it makes the north "different". Indeed it still remains to be seen whether the rules are even legal, and it could also prove to be a smugglers' charter.

Regardless of the outcome of Wednesday night's vote on removing 'no-deal' from the table, an orderly exit from the EU is still the desire of most people after two-and-a-half years of tortuous divorce negotiations and two woefully failed attempts to have Theresa May's plans ratified by parliament.

Right now, the UK is giving the impression that it is desperate for a deal at all costs.

But here's the rub. MPs have been regularly changing their minds in this whole myriad of almost weekly (nightly even) meaningful votes. So surely the public can change its mind too? At least they ought to be given the opportunity to cast another vote in a second referendum?

It's not just the Cheltenham Festival where bookies are chalking up odds this week. Political betting traders at Paddy Power and Betfair have stretched the odds of a no deal Brexit from 4/1 to 9/2, which equates to an 18 per cent chance.

And perhaps a decent bet might be the 2/1 odds for a second referendum before the end of this year. Interestingly, that's the shortest price yet since the Brexit betting book was opened.

So if your Cheltenham office syndicate is creaking at the seams after the most punter-unfriendly festival opening in history, diverting a few quid in that direction might yet prove a shrewd investment . . . .