Opinion

ANALYSIS: Opinion poll findings reflect widespread dismay

Tory leader Theresa May's satisfaction rating among voters in the north is comparatively high. Picture by Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire
Tory leader Theresa May's satisfaction rating among voters in the north is comparatively high. Picture by Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire Tory leader Theresa May's satisfaction rating among voters in the north is comparatively high. Picture by Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

IT comes with the caveat that it's only an opinion poll but if you wanted evidence to support Colum Eastwood's claim that politics in the north is broken, look no further than the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI survey. The SDLP leader didn't fair especially well in the poll but he'll be consoled by the fact that his satisfaction rating is at least greater than Arlene Foster's and Michelle O'Neill's.

To many the DUP leader's poor rating is to be expected. Her oversight of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme has been dissected by Sir Patrick Coghlin's inquiry, with little if any evidence casting her in a positive light. Only her most loyal followers would argue that the RHI scandal hasn't had a negative impact on Mrs Foster's standing.

The DUP's handling of Brexit has also been deeply questionable. The party claims to act in the 'best interests of Northern Ireland' yet has alienated the majority in the region who voted to remain in the EU, as well as large swathes of the party's traditional business and farming constituencies.

Given the record outlined above you might expect Mrs Foster to rank at the very bottom in terms of her satisfaction rating, however, it appears those surveyed are even more unhappy with Ms O'Neill. Two years after succeeding Martin McGuinness, the Mid Ulster MLA is well past her probationary period yet it appears voters have yet to be convinced of her credentials. There's better news for republicans in the poll's findings that a majority of voters in the south are supportive of reunification, though there's nothing in the results to suggest Sinn Féin can claim any credit for that figure.

Perhaps most surprisingly is the comparative positive rating Theresa May received in the poll. Some of it may be characterised as a sympathy vote but the Tory leader's resilience and determination to get the withdrawal agreement through Westminster has clearly struck a chord with voters in the north.

The results reflect a glaring level of overall dissatisfaction and dismay with the current political situation but it's hard to determine whether these quantitative results lend support to or undermine the argument for a restoration of the devolved institutions.