Opinion

Analysis: Stormont will not return until DUP Tory deal comes to an end

One year after the DUP walked away from a deal to restore the Stormont executive, we examine the fallout over the past 12 months and the likelihood of the institutions being restored anytime soon...

Secretary of State Karen Bradley has paid lip service to bringing the parties together in an attempt to reach common ground between the DUP and Sinn Féin 
Secretary of State Karen Bradley has paid lip service to bringing the parties together in an attempt to reach common ground between the DUP and Sinn Féin  Secretary of State Karen Bradley has paid lip service to bringing the parties together in an attempt to reach common ground between the DUP and Sinn Féin 

THERESA May has attracted some uncharacteristic sympathy in Northern Ireland because of her Brexit predicament yet the same understanding doesn't appear to extend to Secretary of State Karen Bradley, even though she too is engaged in a thankless task.

Mrs Bradley was in post barely a month one year ago when the talks process crashed at the eleventh hour as the DUP's feet froze. The secretary of state can hardly be held accountable for that failure, though her record in the 12 months since has been widely criticised. While she doesn't entirely escape responsibility for the current inertia, the opprobrium heaped on her from some quarters has been unfair. She is, like her party leader, a victim of circumstance and arguably in its own way, the Stormont situation is just as intractable as Brexit.

Should the institutions even be restored?

The argument for restoring the institutions, especially under existing arrangements, is weak. A decade of devolution delivered very little substantively, creating only an illusion of stability and collaboration. And let's not forget:

  • RHI
  • the Social Investment Fund
  • Nama
  • Red Sky.

Anybody citing lengthy hospital waiting lists or underfunded schools as reasons for bringing back the executive without delay, mustn't have been paying too much attention to the health and education sectors prior to January 2017.

Then there's the numerous impediments to agreement and any subsequent cooperation in an restored executive.

Brexit complicates chances of agreement

Brexit is less than 50 days away and Stormont's 'big two' have decidedly different takes on this momentous political event, which is expected to dominate the agenda not just for months but for years ahead. Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness's 2016 joint letter to Mrs May spelled out shared priorities over Brexit but posed questions rather than offering answers. Formulating a shared DUP-Sinn Féin position on Brexit in the current circumstances would be akin to uniting Jeremy Corbyn and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Any potential common ground caves in entirely when you add the strong possibility of a no deal and a potential hard border.

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RHI Inquiry still to report

We also have the RHI inquiry's report to contend with. Reflecting the months of evidence from key protagonists in the last Stormont administration, Sir John Coghlin's report will likely paint a picture of a dysfunctional government where policy was often driven by special advisers motivated not by the common good but by narrow interests. Mrs Foster's role in the scandal cannot be underplayed and it's unlikely the inquiry will accept her argument that for a variety of reasons, she wasn't across her brief. Is it really feasible that Sinn Féin and Stormont's other parties will happily accept Mrs Foster's reappointment as first minister given her previous track record?

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DUP/Tory pact

Mrs Bradley is all too aware of these stumbling blocks as she pays lip service to the idea of bringing the parties together for a fresh round of talks. Yet standing on her shoulder as she attempts to reassure us of her sincerity is an elephant wearing the distinctive red, white and blue livery of the DUP. She doesn't say it, but she's constrained in the pressure she can apply to the DUP by the confidence and supply deal, which sees the party's ten MPs prop up the Tories minority government at Westminster. Until it has run its course, the chances of corralling Mrs Foster et al into accepting something close to last year's deal, which was widely regarded as good for unionism, remain remote.

Perhaps the only thing that might bring the Stormont politicians to their senses is the half-baked notion that their ill-equipped council colleagues will somehow fill the power vacuum by taking on extra responsibilities.

February 13 2018: May and Varadkar leave Stormont without agreement