Opinion

Analysis: Whatever you do don't mention the border

The Dublin government's contingency plan doesn't make clear how the border would operate in the event of a no deal Brexit. Picture by David Young/PA Wire
The Dublin government's contingency plan doesn't make clear how the border would operate in the event of a no deal Brexit. Picture by David Young/PA Wire The Dublin government's contingency plan doesn't make clear how the border would operate in the event of a no deal Brexit. Picture by David Young/PA Wire

THERE are few certainties around Brexit yet you can be guaranteed that every emerging aspect elicits more heat than light. Contingency plans for a no deal scenario from the EU and Irish government are designed to create a degree of certainty for uncertain times but it would be stretching things to suggest the two papers provide reassurance, rather they prompt further questions and reinforce dismay.

The Dublin government's 133-page document makes it clear that the UK crashing out of the EU would be a disaster for everybody involved and most observers, with the exception of sanguine Brexiteers, would concur with this assessment. There are degrees of disaster, however, and the plans published will seek to minimise the ensuing chaos. To borrow from Donald Rumsfeld, we are dealing with known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.

The elephant in the room in both the EU and Dublin contingency plans is the border. It gets 33 mentions in the Irish government's document but mostly to reaffirm that there will be no hardening of the EU's frontier with what will be termed a "third country".

The reluctance to address how the border will operate has some justification, as any suggestion that the EU will impose any kind of barrier to trade and movement will be seized upon and characterised as a threat. Secondly, Dublin knows a hard border isn't going to suddenly appear on March 29 but will be something that happens incrementally over time in response to evolving circumstances. With so many variables and potential scenarios, it's nigh on impossible to plan without having to formulate contingency plans for the contingency plans etc. The backstop remains the best solution to maintaining a frictionless border if no new arrangements can be agreed but can it be adopted unilaterally without UK acquiescence?

The belief in Brussels, London and Dublin is that the withdrawal agreement offers the best chance for a smooth transition yet this consensus doesn't extend to Westminster and the situation is unlikely to differ significantly come January's meaningful vote. A majority of British MPs are opposed to a no deal but they also appear to reject the idea of a second referendum... and so the knot tightens and the conundrum deepens.

One saving grace in this profoundly unpredictable situation is that the main protagonists are unlikely to inflict further self-harm unless their hand is forced. The absence of a viable alternative to Theresa May's deal also provides some hope that a doomsday scenario can be avoided. De-dramatisation can't happen soon enough.