Opinion

Analysis: Radical boundary changes are far from certain

The proposed changed will take the number of Westminster seats from 18 to 17.
The proposed changed will take the number of Westminster seats from 18 to 17. The proposed changed will take the number of Westminster seats from 18 to 17.

ON the face of things Northern Ireland has fared well in losing just one of its 18 Westminster seats under the final revised Boundary Commisson plans.

Under the changes, if approved by Westminster, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North seat would be one of those to disappear.

That has prompted the party to condemn the plans as "short-sighted and biased" given that studies indicate the new system would have favoured the Conservatives in last year’s election.

For Northern Ireland that would have meant - in this alternative electoral universe - the current confidence and supply deal with the DUP and all that came with it might not have been necessary.

More radical plans, originally considered, would have taken Belfast from four consistencies to three. This idea was scrapped in the final draft which was the result of a lengthy and complex consultation.

Plans to split the Co Derry town of Dungiven between three different constituencies - West Tyrone, Mid Ulster and Causeway received the largest public reaction, with almost 5,000 people signing an online petition in protest.

People power won out in the end and the mainly nationalist town will now move from Mid Ulster to the newly named Sperrin.

Among other changes West Belfast will take in more of the loyalist Woodvale area and, on the other side of the constituency, parts of the mainly unionist Derriaghy and Lambeg.

While this will not make much of a difference in Westminster elections, it will in have an impact on future assembly elections, dramatically increasing unionist chances of representation in a previously green West Belfast.

Also, no longer will the more affluent Holywood ward be part of North Down instead, if the proposals are approved, most of the area will be included in East Belfast.

Any such change here could potentially cause problems for the only independent MP Lady Sylvia Hermon, who is under increasing pressure from the DUP.

If passed the proposals would - judged on previous voting patterns - give Sinn Féin seven seats and the DUP no change from their current 10.

But despite the consultation having to date cost the taxpayer more than £10 million, these proposals being passed by Parliament are far from certain and may - for now at least - remain little more than lines drawn on a map.