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General Election 2017: How the bookies see the key battle grounds

ON the eve of polling day, political correspondent John Manley takes a last look at how the bookies see the key battles in this Westminster election

you decide: South Belfast offers one of the most intriguing contests of the general election  	    Picture: Mal McCann
you decide: South Belfast offers one of the most intriguing contests of the general election Picture: Mal McCann you decide: South Belfast offers one of the most intriguing contests of the general election Picture: Mal McCann

If bookmakers' odds are any guide, then there could be a change of MP in at least three of the north's constituencies after polls close tomorrow – though they won't necessarily all be new faces.

Odds suggest Naomi Long will regain East Belfast, Michelle Gildernew will be returned in Fermanagh and South Tyrone and her party colleague Chris Hazzard will oust the SDLP in South Down.

They are among several close contests being predicted, with the intra-nationalist battles in South Belfast, South Down and Foyle proving especially interesting.

But Lee Price of Paddy Power said the race in North Belfast has attracted most money from punters.

"Our most popular constituency betting wise is North Belfast, where John Finucane is seeking to take the seat Nigel Dodds has held for the DUP since 2001," he said.

"Around 70 per cent of all bets in that market have been on Finucane, driving his price into 2/1 from 3/1."

Mr Price said interest overall in the election had "grown steadily" since campaigning got under way.

"We've seen plenty of action in the last week, as evidenced by the various price moves."

But of course bookies' odds are not necessarily a reliable indicator of how voters will behave in the polling booth.

"Odds are great to watch for political punters, however in Northern Ireland due to lack of polling during campaigns it's much more difficult for bookies to make a call," said Ulster University politics lecturer and Slugger O'Toole deputy editor David McCann.

"Many times they are simply following what their customers are doing."

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  • NORTH BELFAST – It's a proverbial two-horse race in North Belfast though some would argue it's a foregone conclusion in favour of DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds, whose profile will no doubt have been raised by this week's peak-time TV appearance standing in for Arlene Foster. But Sinn Féin remain upbeat, believing an otherwise weak field will enable John Finucane to hoover up a substantial ABD (anyone but Dodds) vote. A month ago the bookies were offering 3/1 on Mr Finucane but yesterday his odds had shortened to 2/1, with Mr Dodds still favourite at 1/3.
  • FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TRYONE – It's always a close call in the north's most westerly constituency and the bookies' odds reflect this. Most commentators believe that despite a single unionist candidate in Ulster Unionist Tom Elliott, former Stormont agriculture minister Michelle Gildernew will regain the seat she lost two years ago. The Sinn Féin candidate's success largely depends on how many votes the SDLP's Mary Garrity can attract. In recent days the odds for Ms Gildernew and Mr Elliott have shortened, suggesting money for both.
  •  SOUTH BELFAST – Arguably the most intriguing of all the contests across the north, this is not only a battle between unionism and nationalism but between the incumbent SDLP man and Sinn Féin. Social media would have you believe that Máirtín Ó Muilleoir can snatch it but Alasdair McDonnell is a seasoned campaigner who's become accustomed to defying pundits' predictions. The closer the intra-nationalist-republican contest, the more it will benefit the DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly but the former SDLP leader remains the bookies' firm favourite at 8/11. The DUP are priced at 7/4, Alliance third favourite at 9/2 and Sinn Féin back on 8/1.
  •  SOUTH DOWN – The Sinn Féin campaign in this once safe SDLP seat has been gathering pace in recent weeks and the bookies' odds reflect this. A month ago former infrastructure minister Chriss Hazzard had his nose just in front but as polling day approaches he has moved to odds-on favourite. A re-run of March's assembly result would see former SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie give up the seat her party has held for 30 years. Ms Ritchie will be hoping enough unionists vote tactically to enable her to hang on.
  • EAST BELFAST – A month ago the bookies slashed the odds on Naomi Long reclaiming East Belfast from the DUP, as it became clear she was the punters' pick ahead of incumbent Gavin Robinson. Her odds have drifted slightly since to 4/5 but she remains favourite to win back the seat ahead of Mr Robinson at 10/11.Paddy Power point out that in 2010 you could have got Naomi Long at 100/1 to take the seat from Peter Robinson.
  •  FOYLE – Sinn Féin are also at the gates of this SDLP citadel though of the three Westminster seats Colum Eastwood's party is defending, his home city is probably the safest. The bookmakers' odds would certainly reflect Mark Durkan's optimism, as at 1/3 they are the shortest of any SDLP candidate in the Westminster election, having been cut from 4/6 in recent days. Sinn Féin's Elisha McCallion is a comparatively long price of 2/1 but it's worth remembering that candidates with longer odds have topped the poll in the past.

All prices courtesy of Paddy Power

For a complete list of candidates standing in the general election on Thursday click here