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Poll predicts Sinn Féin victory in Fermanagh-South Tyrone

Ulster Unionist Party candidate Tom Elliott. Picture by Mal McCann
Ulster Unionist Party candidate Tom Elliott. Picture by Mal McCann Ulster Unionist Party candidate Tom Elliott. Picture by Mal McCann

SINN Féin appear on course to win Fermanagh-South Tyrone back from the Ulster Unionist Party, according to the latest polling.

The Lucid Talk NI Election Seat Predictor shows Michelle Gildernew as likely to win her seat back from Tom Elliott.

The constituency has been one of the closest-fought in the north and is likely to be a key battle in the June 8 general election.

In 2015, Mr Elliott defeated Ms Gildernew by less than 600 votes when the DUP did not stand. And in 2010 Ms Gildernew won the seat by just four votes against independent Rodney Connor.

Lucid Talk's `seat predictor' has thrown up some changes since its previous run at the end of April.

The computer based predictor uses the last three major Northern Ireland election results, and the most recent LT polling, as data input. It then predicts likelihood in percentage terms, of seats being won by the various parties, broken down by the 18 Westminster constituencies.

South Antrim, and South Down, show the largest changes with it predicting the sitting MPs - Danny Kinahan and Margaret Ritchie - both 15 per cent less likely to win.

South and East Belfast, also show some changes with the SDLP losing 5 per cent to the DUP in the south and the DUP losing 5 per cent to Alliance in the east.