SOUTH Antrim saw a major political upheaval upon the return of power-sharing in 2007, when Sinn Féin’s Mitchell McLaughlin topped the poll, pipping no-less an arch rival than the DUP’s singing RevWilliam McCrea to first place by just 290 votes.
A decade on, and Sinn Féin still enjoy that seat in this true-blue constituency, although they haven’t been able to match the heady days when tricolour-waving at the ballot count drowned out the dulcet tones of McCrea and his loyal supporters.
The seat is now occupied by Declan Kearney - who repeated former Speaker McLaughlin’s 2011 performance with a second place finish behind Paul Girvan of the DUP – and the Sinn Féin National Chairman is almost certain to retain his place when six become five.
However, as elsewhere, the question is whether the Rnewable Heat Incentive furore will see enough disgruntled unionists turn their back on the DUP and allow others to edge ahead.
Also, McLaughlin/Kearney’s second place since 2011 was held by the skin of their teeth. The DUP has been nipping the heels of the old enemy with third-place polling positions for Trevor Clarke in 2011 – just 55 votes behind - and Pam Cameron last year who trailed by a mere 43 first place preferences.
It will take both RHI anger aimed at the DUP – possibly causing a rise in votes for TUV hopeful Richard Cairns - along with a low return for People Before Profit candidate Ivana Antova to prevent Kearney falling to a third place finish or below.
Yet it’s still likely lights out for one DUP candidate, as the new slimline Assembly finds it doesn’t have enough belt notches to contain a trio of them from South Antrim.
With Girvan and Cameron both popular among unionists ranging from staunch to the more progressive, it looks like Clarke – probably best known in his Stormont stint for provoking ridicule from Elton John over his admitted ignorance on the spread of HIV in heterosexuals - could now be planning his post-Assembly career.
Meanwhile, the UUP’s Stephen Aiken and former Alliance leader David Ford are both predicting to remain among the MLAs of the new-look Stormont.
Aiken’s military background appealed to South Antrim’s revitalised Ulster Unionist support base in 2016; he rode high on the back of colleague Danny Kinahan’s success in wrenching the Westminster seat back from the DUP the previous year.
The former submarine commander can rely on DUP transfers – reluctantly of course, given his party leader’s admission of plans to transfer to the SDLP rather than a fellow unionist from among Arlene Foster’s ranks.
Aiken’s outspoken fellow party candidate and former co-opted Stormont replacement for Danny Kinahan, Adrian Cochrane-Watson, is unlikely to make an Assembly return going by his two previous election attempts that saw him fail to make the quota.
Mr Ford though, as in previous elections, will top up his own first-place preference support from nationalists and likely retain his long-held seat, leaving South Antrim yet again a cold house for the SDLP, which has been unable to return an MLA here since Thomas Burns was usurped in 2011.
Contender Roisin Lynch batted well for the SDLP last year, pocketing 9.6 percent of the vote, but unless major shake-ups are afoot, will not be betting on a Stormont seat.
Other canidates include People Before Profit Alliance, the Greens, Northern Ireland Conservatives and one Independent.
CANDIDATES:
Stephen Aiken (UUP)
Ivana Antova (PBPA)
Eleanor Bailey (Green)
Richard Cairns (TUV)
Pam Cameron (DUP)
Trevor Clarke (DUP)
Adrian Cochrane-Watson (UUP)
David Ford (All)
Paul Girvan (DUP)
Declan Kearney (SF)
Mark Logan (NI Con)
Roisin Lynch (SDLP)
David McMaster (Ind)
2016 share of first preference vote:
DUP 37.5%
UUP 22.2%
SF 13.2%
SDLP 9.6%
All 8.9%
TUV 3.8%
Green 1.7%
UKIP 1.6%
Ind 1.4%
NI Con 0.2%
Seats won in 2016:
DUP 3
UUP 1
SF 1
All 1
Pam Cameron (DUP)
Trevor Clarke (DUP)
