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Analysis: Republicans who believe in 'armed struggle' will always seek to target England

The Canary Wharf bomb in 1996 claimed two lives
The Canary Wharf bomb in 1996 claimed two lives The Canary Wharf bomb in 1996 claimed two lives

THAT republicans may be planning to attack targets in Britain will come as little surprise.

Launching an attack in Britain’s back yard has been viewed for decades as the best way to grab the attention of the British establishment as well as maximise publicity both at home and abroad.

Since the Fenian dynamite campaign of the 1880’s, republicans have targeted English cities, searching out economic and military targets as well as individuals.

While the threat posed by active republican groups today does not match that of the Provisional IRA, in recent years some have demonstrated a growing capacity to carry out attacks.

Groups opposed to the peace process have targeted England before.

The Real IRA carried out a series of attacks around the turn of the century including launching a rocket at MI6 headquarters in London in 2000.

It was the last Irish paramilitary organisation to detonate a bomb in Britain in 2001.

The group known as the ‘IRA’ currently poses the most significant threat to the security forces in the north.

It has targeted Britain before and in 2014 claimed responsibility for sending seven letter bombs to military recruitment offices in the south east of England.

It is likely any new MI5 threat assessment is linked to that group.

Since it announced its formation in 2012 the ‘IRA’ has carried out a series of gun and bomb attacks and has slowly built up its structures and capabilities.

In the recent past it has used Semtex in under car booby traps and home made mortars known as EFPs.

It has also developed a shoulder held ‘drop and go’ rocket launcher and tried to detonate a remote controlled bomb in north Belfast last year.

A the time the group warned: "Attacks will continue when and where the IRA see fit."

The latest assessment comes after the British government’s National Security Strategy warned last year that: “Violent dissident republicans aspire to target Great Britain, and some groupings remains capable of conducting one-off attacks but currently consider Northern Ireland to be their main focus.”

The steady level of ‘IRA’ activity in recent years has resulted in few prosecutions.

Some will see this as evidence that MI5 and other agencies have blind spots in their intelligence.

Any new threat assessment will be based on ripples of intelligence picked up through electronic surveillance, informers or monitoring the movements of individuals.

The threat rating has gone from moderate to substantial - which is the second highest category.

Some believe the ‘big bomb’ tactic in Britain has worked for republicans in the past.

In the lead up to their 1994 ceasefire the Provisional IRA carried out a series of high profile bomb attacks in Britain causing hundreds of millions of pounds worth of damage. Concern over the economic repercussions is believed by many to have helped nudge the British government into talks with republicans.

The end of the IRA’s ceasefire in 1996 was signalled by a massive explosion in London’s Docklands which claimed two lives and caused massive damage.