ANALYSIS: Manner of McGuigan killing suggests IRA involvement
To suggest members of the Provisional IRA would carry out a joint operation with a group of people they consider to be criminal no-marks is fooling no one.
To then suggest that a group such as Action Against Drugs, up until now only responsible for only a few botched attacks, planned and carried out the murder of Kevin McGuigan seems equally ludicrous.
The people connected to AAD would be widely known and up until last night not one of them has been arrested or questioned about the murder of the father-of-nine despite investigating officer Kevin Geddes saying he believes the group were involved.
Several of those arrested are still considered 'on message' or at least they were until a few short weeks ago. None of the people arrested to date have any known links to AAD.
Sinn Féin have invested too much in the political process to let it be derailed by revenge. However, the murder of Kevin McGuigan seems to have exposed tensions between the political and military sections of the mainstream republican movement.
Anger at the murder of Jock Davison from those IRA members he lead for many years has it seems caused a breach of control unheard of within an organisation known for its unquestioning loyalty and discipline.
The people who killed Kevin McGuigan were avenging their former leader in the belief that he would have done the same for them. The gunmen and those who planned the murder were not amateurs, the father-of-nine was gunned down in an attack planned with ruthless precision.
The manner in which the murder was carried out would indicate the gunmen at least had previous experience.
That this killing was officially sanctioned at a high level seems unlikely, the political price to pay for such a breach of the ceasefire is just too high. But the 'friends of Jock Davison' group that carried out the murder were almost certainly experienced operators.
The Short Strand killing had all the hallmarks of a Provisional IRA attack both in motive, planning and execution. And if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck , you can be pretty sure that's exactly what it is.